Straight-up: 3-5 (0.375)
Against-the-spread: 3-5 (0 games had "No Line") (0.375)
On the year:
Straight-up: 121-39 (0.756)
Against-the-spread: 73-69 (19 games had "No Line") (0.514)
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Monday, December 8, 2008
FBS (1A) College Football Playoffs Predictions (UPDATED)
Here is the update to my previous post outlining a 16-team FBS (1-A) Playoff. As a reminder, assume that each conference champion receives an automatic bid (11 teams) and 5 teams receive at-large bids. Teams are seeded by their position in the BCS Standings. Higher seeded teams play at home. Teams from the same conference cannot meet in the first round.
Automatic Bids
ACC - Virginia Tech
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Ten - Penn State
Big 12 - Oklahoma
Conference USA - East Carolina
MAC - Buffalo
Mountain West - Utah
Pac 10 - USC
SEC - Florida
Sun Belt - Troy
WAC - Boise State
At-Large
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Texas Tech
4. Ohio State
5. TCU
1. Oklahoma vs. 16. Troy
8. Penn State vs. 9. Boise State
5. USC vs. 12. TCU
4. Alabama vs. 13. Virginia Tech
6. Utah vs. 11. Cincinnati
3. Texas vs. 14. East Carolina
7. Texas Tech vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Florida vs. 15. Buffalo
Automatic Bids
ACC - Virginia Tech
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Ten - Penn State
Big 12 - Oklahoma
Conference USA - East Carolina
MAC - Buffalo
Mountain West - Utah
Pac 10 - USC
SEC - Florida
Sun Belt - Troy
WAC - Boise State
At-Large
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Texas Tech
4. Ohio State
5. TCU
1. Oklahoma vs. 16. Troy
8. Penn State vs. 9. Boise State
5. USC vs. 12. TCU
4. Alabama vs. 13. Virginia Tech
6. Utah vs. 11. Cincinnati
3. Texas vs. 14. East Carolina
7. Texas Tech vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Florida vs. 15. Buffalo
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 15)
Conference Championship Games
Buffalo vs. #13 Ball State (-14.5) (MAC Championship Game)
Ball State 41 Buffalo 14 (Ball State covers)
#20 Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (+1) (ACC Championship Game)
Boston College 24 Virginia Tech 17 (Boston College covers)
#17 Missouri vs. #2 Oklahoma (-16.5) (Big 12 Championship Game)
Oklahoma 42 Missouri 21 (Oklahoma covers)
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida (-10) (SEC Championship Game)
Alabama 27 Florida 24 (Alabama covers)
FCS Playoff Quarterfinals
Villanova at #1 James Madison (-6)
James Madison 31 Villanova 17 (James Madison covers)
Weber State at #4 Montana (-5)
Weber State 35 Montana 31 (Montana covers)
New Hampshire at #3 Northern Iowa (+2)
Northern Iowa 30 New Hampshire 27 (Northern Iowa covers)
Richmond at #2 Appalachian State (Pick 'em)
Applachian State 38 Richmond 20 (Appalachian State covers)
Buffalo vs. #13 Ball State (-14.5) (MAC Championship Game)
Ball State 41 Buffalo 14 (Ball State covers)
#20 Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (+1) (ACC Championship Game)
Boston College 24 Virginia Tech 17 (Boston College covers)
#17 Missouri vs. #2 Oklahoma (-16.5) (Big 12 Championship Game)
Oklahoma 42 Missouri 21 (Oklahoma covers)
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida (-10) (SEC Championship Game)
Alabama 27 Florida 24 (Alabama covers)
FCS Playoff Quarterfinals
Villanova at #1 James Madison (-6)
James Madison 31 Villanova 17 (James Madison covers)
Weber State at #4 Montana (-5)
Weber State 35 Montana 31 (Montana covers)
New Hampshire at #3 Northern Iowa (+2)
Northern Iowa 30 New Hampshire 27 (Northern Iowa covers)
Richmond at #2 Appalachian State (Pick 'em)
Applachian State 38 Richmond 20 (Appalachian State covers)
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Week 14 Prediction Results
Straight-up: 12-7 (0.632)
Against-the-spread: 9-10 (0 games had "No Line") (0.474)
On the year:
Straight-up: 118-34 (0.766)
Against-the-spread: 70-64 (19 games had "No Line") (0.522)
Against-the-spread: 9-10 (0 games had "No Line") (0.474)
On the year:
Straight-up: 118-34 (0.766)
Against-the-spread: 70-64 (19 games had "No Line") (0.522)
Sunday, November 30, 2008
FBS (1A) College Football Playoffs Predictions
Having just witnessed Texas getting "screwed" and left out of the Big 12 title game by being jumped in the BCS Standings by an Oklahoma team that they beat head-to-head brought an interesting "what-if." What if the FBS (former Division 1A) employed the same type of 16 team playoff enjoyed at the FCS (former Division 1AA) level?
Let's use the same rules as the FCS uses to set-up a 16 team playoff on the FBS level. Each conference champion (there are 11 FBS conferences) receives an automatic bid to the playoff. This allows even the lowly Sun Belt their day on the big stage (much like in the NCAA Basektball tourney). The other 5 teams in the playoff at the 5 best non-champions as rated by the BCS Standings. In determining first round match-ups, schools from the same conference cannot be matched. All games except the title game are played at the homefield of the higher ranked school.
At this point, not all conference champions are determined, but here's a list of the potential playoff participants:
Automatic Bids
ACC - Boston College or Virginia Tech
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Ten - Penn State
Big 12 - Oklahoma or Missouri
Conference USA - East Carolina or Tulsa
MAC - Ball State or Buffalo
Mountain West - Utah
Pac 10 - USC or Oregon State
SEC - Alabama or Florida
Sun Belt - Troy, Arkansas State, or UL-Lafayette
WAC - Boise State
At-Large
1. Alabama/Florida loser
2. Texas
3. Texas Tech
4. Ohio State
5. TCU
Note that if USC loses to UCLA, then USC would take an at-large spot and if Oklahoma loses to Missouri, then Oklahoma would take an at-large berth.
Assuming that Alabama beats Florida, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Tulsa beats East Carolina, Oklahoma beats Missouri, Ball State beats Buffalo, USC beats UCLA, and Troy wins the Sun Belt, here are the first round match-ups:
1. Alabama vs. 16. Troy
8. Penn State vs. 9. Boise State
5. Florida vs. 12. TCU
4. USC vs. 13. Cincinnati
6. Utah vs. 11. Ball State
3. Texas vs. 14. Boston College
7. Texas Tech vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Oklahoma vs. 15. Tulsa
Some very intriguing match-ups in the first round. Both Alabama and Oklahoma draw in-state opponents. Two "BCS busters meet" in Salt Lake City. Texas Tech's high-flying offense takes on Ohio State. Penn State hosts a dangerous Boise State.
Can you imagine the fun and intrigue that would come from such a system? Not to mention the vast amounts of money from the TV deal. Unfortunately, all we can do is imagine, as the college presidents and the NCAA seem years or decades away from seeing the light and implementing such a system.
Let's use the same rules as the FCS uses to set-up a 16 team playoff on the FBS level. Each conference champion (there are 11 FBS conferences) receives an automatic bid to the playoff. This allows even the lowly Sun Belt their day on the big stage (much like in the NCAA Basektball tourney). The other 5 teams in the playoff at the 5 best non-champions as rated by the BCS Standings. In determining first round match-ups, schools from the same conference cannot be matched. All games except the title game are played at the homefield of the higher ranked school.
At this point, not all conference champions are determined, but here's a list of the potential playoff participants:
Automatic Bids
ACC - Boston College or Virginia Tech
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Ten - Penn State
Big 12 - Oklahoma or Missouri
Conference USA - East Carolina or Tulsa
MAC - Ball State or Buffalo
Mountain West - Utah
Pac 10 - USC or Oregon State
SEC - Alabama or Florida
Sun Belt - Troy, Arkansas State, or UL-Lafayette
WAC - Boise State
At-Large
1. Alabama/Florida loser
2. Texas
3. Texas Tech
4. Ohio State
5. TCU
Note that if USC loses to UCLA, then USC would take an at-large spot and if Oklahoma loses to Missouri, then Oklahoma would take an at-large berth.
Assuming that Alabama beats Florida, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Tulsa beats East Carolina, Oklahoma beats Missouri, Ball State beats Buffalo, USC beats UCLA, and Troy wins the Sun Belt, here are the first round match-ups:
1. Alabama vs. 16. Troy
8. Penn State vs. 9. Boise State
5. Florida vs. 12. TCU
4. USC vs. 13. Cincinnati
6. Utah vs. 11. Ball State
3. Texas vs. 14. Boston College
7. Texas Tech vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Oklahoma vs. 15. Tulsa
Some very intriguing match-ups in the first round. Both Alabama and Oklahoma draw in-state opponents. Two "BCS busters meet" in Salt Lake City. Texas Tech's high-flying offense takes on Ohio State. Penn State hosts a dangerous Boise State.
Can you imagine the fun and intrigue that would come from such a system? Not to mention the vast amounts of money from the TV deal. Unfortunately, all we can do is imagine, as the college presidents and the NCAA seem years or decades away from seeing the light and implementing such a system.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 14)
Top 25
#18 Oregon at #17 Oregon State (-3)
Oregon State 27 Oregon 21 (Oregon State covers)
#2 Oklahoma at #12 Oklahoma State (+7.5)
Oklahoma 38 Oklahoma State 21 (Oklahoma covers)
#3 Florida at #24 Florida State (+15)
Florida 37 Florida State 20 (Florida covers)
SEC Games
Kentucky at Tennessee (-5)
Kentucky 21 Tennessee 14 (Kentucky covers)
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (-3.5)
Wake Forest 27 Vanderbilt 17 (Wake Forest covers)
South Carolina at Clemson (-1)
South Carolina 24 Clemson 14 (South Carolina covers)
LSU at Arkansas (+4.5)
LSU 30 Arkansas 21 (LSU covers)
Mississippi State at Mississippi (-13)
Mississippi 30 Mississippi State 10 (Mississippi covers)
#23 Georgia Tech at #13 Georgia (-9)
Georgia 23 Georgia Tech 16 (Georgia Tech covers)
Auburn at #1 Alabama (-14.5)
Alabama 31 Auburn 10 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
New Mexico State at Utah State (-5)
New Mexico State 35 Utah State 31 (New Mexico State)
Utah and BYU have completed their regular seasons.
Weber State is participating in the FCS Playoffs (see below).
FCS Playoffs
(Lines from Sagarin Predictor Rating System rounded to nearest integer)
Wofford at #1 James Madison (-8)
James Madison 38 Wofford 20 (James Madison covers)
Colgate at Villanova (-16)
Villanova 30 Colgate 13 (Villanova covers)
Texas State at #4 Montana (-18)
Montana 41 Texas State 17 (Montana covers)
Weber State at Cal Poly (-4)
Cal Poly 35 Weber State 34 (Weber State covers)
South Carolina State at #2 Appalachian State (-18)
Appalachian State 45 South Carolina State 10 (Appalachian State covers)
Eastern Kentucky at Richmond (-24)
Richmond 31 Eastern Kentucky 10 (Eastern Kentucky covers)
Maine at #3 Northern Iowa (-2)
Northern Iowa 38 Maine 20 (Northern Iowa covers)
New Hampshire at Southern Illinois (+7)
New Hampshire 27 Southern Illinois 21 (Southern Illinois covers)
#18 Oregon at #17 Oregon State (-3)
Oregon State 27 Oregon 21 (Oregon State covers)
#2 Oklahoma at #12 Oklahoma State (+7.5)
Oklahoma 38 Oklahoma State 21 (Oklahoma covers)
#3 Florida at #24 Florida State (+15)
Florida 37 Florida State 20 (Florida covers)
SEC Games
Kentucky at Tennessee (-5)
Kentucky 21 Tennessee 14 (Kentucky covers)
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (-3.5)
Wake Forest 27 Vanderbilt 17 (Wake Forest covers)
South Carolina at Clemson (-1)
South Carolina 24 Clemson 14 (South Carolina covers)
LSU at Arkansas (+4.5)
LSU 30 Arkansas 21 (LSU covers)
Mississippi State at Mississippi (-13)
Mississippi 30 Mississippi State 10 (Mississippi covers)
#23 Georgia Tech at #13 Georgia (-9)
Georgia 23 Georgia Tech 16 (Georgia Tech covers)
Auburn at #1 Alabama (-14.5)
Alabama 31 Auburn 10 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
New Mexico State at Utah State (-5)
New Mexico State 35 Utah State 31 (New Mexico State)
Utah and BYU have completed their regular seasons.
Weber State is participating in the FCS Playoffs (see below).
FCS Playoffs
(Lines from Sagarin Predictor Rating System rounded to nearest integer)
Wofford at #1 James Madison (-8)
James Madison 38 Wofford 20 (James Madison covers)
Colgate at Villanova (-16)
Villanova 30 Colgate 13 (Villanova covers)
Texas State at #4 Montana (-18)
Montana 41 Texas State 17 (Montana covers)
Weber State at Cal Poly (-4)
Cal Poly 35 Weber State 34 (Weber State covers)
South Carolina State at #2 Appalachian State (-18)
Appalachian State 45 South Carolina State 10 (Appalachian State covers)
Eastern Kentucky at Richmond (-24)
Richmond 31 Eastern Kentucky 10 (Eastern Kentucky covers)
Maine at #3 Northern Iowa (-2)
Northern Iowa 38 Maine 20 (Northern Iowa covers)
New Hampshire at Southern Illinois (+7)
New Hampshire 27 Southern Illinois 21 (Southern Illinois covers)
Week 12 Prediction Results
Due to professional obligations (i.e., travel for work) I was unable to post predictions for Week 13. Here are the results of my predictions from Week 12.
Straight-up: 8-1 (0.889)
Against-the-spread: 3-6 (0 games had "No Line") (0.333)
On the year:
Straight-up: 106-27 (0.797)
Against-the-spread: 61-54 (19 games had "No Line") (0.530)
Straight-up: 8-1 (0.889)
Against-the-spread: 3-6 (0 games had "No Line") (0.333)
On the year:
Straight-up: 106-27 (0.797)
Against-the-spread: 61-54 (19 games had "No Line") (0.530)
Monday, November 17, 2008
FCS Playoff Projections (After Nov. 15th)
Auto-bids
Big Sky - Weber State*
Colonial - James Madison*
MEAC - South Carolina State*
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley - Tennessee-Martin
Patriot - Colgate
Southern - Appalachian State*
Southland - Texas State
* Indicates Auto-Bid Clinched
At-large
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (Colonial)
Northern Iowa (Misouri Valley)
Cal Poly (Great West)
New Hampshire (Colonial)
Wofford (Southern)
Elon (Southern)
Richmond (Colonial)
Match-ups
South Carolina State at #1 James Madison
Wofford at Southern Illinois
Richmond at #4 Montana
Elon at Cal Poly
Texas State at #3 Weber State
New Hampshire at Northern Iowa
Tennessee-Martin at #2 Appalachian State
Colgate at Villanova
Commentary
Many of the online projections I have seen for this year's FCS playoffs have placed Cal Poly at either Weber State or Montana with the rationale being that Cal Poly is "close" to both of these schools. The NCAA does use a 400 mile rule when trying to pit teams together in the bracket, however, Cal Poly is 879 miles from Ogden, UT and 1,367 miles from Missoula, MT. Given these distances and Cal Poly's high ranking, I suspect that Cal Poly will instead get a home game against a team from east of the Mississippi. Weber then matches up with the Southland champion and Montana gets another East Coast team.
Big Sky - Weber State*
Colonial - James Madison*
MEAC - South Carolina State*
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley - Tennessee-Martin
Patriot - Colgate
Southern - Appalachian State*
Southland - Texas State
* Indicates Auto-Bid Clinched
At-large
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (Colonial)
Northern Iowa (Misouri Valley)
Cal Poly (Great West)
New Hampshire (Colonial)
Wofford (Southern)
Elon (Southern)
Richmond (Colonial)
Match-ups
South Carolina State at #1 James Madison
Wofford at Southern Illinois
Richmond at #4 Montana
Elon at Cal Poly
Texas State at #3 Weber State
New Hampshire at Northern Iowa
Tennessee-Martin at #2 Appalachian State
Colgate at Villanova
Commentary
Many of the online projections I have seen for this year's FCS playoffs have placed Cal Poly at either Weber State or Montana with the rationale being that Cal Poly is "close" to both of these schools. The NCAA does use a 400 mile rule when trying to pit teams together in the bracket, however, Cal Poly is 879 miles from Ogden, UT and 1,367 miles from Missoula, MT. Given these distances and Cal Poly's high ranking, I suspect that Cal Poly will instead get a home game against a team from east of the Mississippi. Weber then matches up with the Southland champion and Montana gets another East Coast team.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Movie Review - "Quantum of Solace"
Quantum of Solace
As described during Episode #5 of "Big C and the Beast", I grew up (along with Big C) as a fan of the James Bond movies. I have seen each of the 21 movies preceding "Quantum of Solace" multiple times and recently watched "Casino Royale" again to prepare for the release of the 22nd installment in the James Bond series. This blog post provides a brief review of the film. I will be careful to not reveal any plot spoilers for those of you who have not seen the film yet.
My wife and I viewed the film on opening night at the Megaplex Theater in Ogden, UT. The theater was full, making me increasingly grateful for having purchased tickets on Tuesday night and reserving our seats. The opening sequence was exciting, but not as edgy or revealing as the "Casino Royale" open. I was also very disappointed by the movie's theme song. It just did not "feel" right, where the "Casino Royale" theme was incredible.
"Casino Royale" took a much darker turn from the "camp" of many of the early Bond films. For me, this turn and the great insight into the Bond character was welcome and helped to revitalize a movie franchise that could have easily gone away forever. I expected to learn more about Bond as a character in "Quantum" and was disappointed. Instead, much more is revealed about M. This is not necessarily bad, but with the reboot of the Bond franchise I feel that the audience wants to know more about the new, edgy Bond.
Some critics have mentioned that the movie is more Bourne-like than Bond-like. Such comparisons are easily made in the frenetic fight scenes that are filmed in a "Bourne Ultimatum" style. The out-of-control camera movement and quick cuts does add a sense of tension to the fight scenes, but becomes almost annoying as it is overused. Is the Bourne comparison fair? To a new generation of Bond fans the answer is "Probably." Bond risks coming across as a less "hip" and more sinister version of Bourne. Some of this perception would likely be eliminated with the return of the classic Bond phrases "Bond, James Bond" and "Shaken not stirred" that are absent in "Quantum." I am, however, not at all advocating a return to the cheesiness that crept into the later Brosnan Bond films.
As a standalone Bond film, "Quantum of Solace" disappoints, but as a bridge between "Casino Royale" and future installments in the Bond series, the movie is adequate.
Rating: 2.5 stars (out of 4)
As described during Episode #5 of "Big C and the Beast", I grew up (along with Big C) as a fan of the James Bond movies. I have seen each of the 21 movies preceding "Quantum of Solace" multiple times and recently watched "Casino Royale" again to prepare for the release of the 22nd installment in the James Bond series. This blog post provides a brief review of the film. I will be careful to not reveal any plot spoilers for those of you who have not seen the film yet.
My wife and I viewed the film on opening night at the Megaplex Theater in Ogden, UT. The theater was full, making me increasingly grateful for having purchased tickets on Tuesday night and reserving our seats. The opening sequence was exciting, but not as edgy or revealing as the "Casino Royale" open. I was also very disappointed by the movie's theme song. It just did not "feel" right, where the "Casino Royale" theme was incredible.
"Casino Royale" took a much darker turn from the "camp" of many of the early Bond films. For me, this turn and the great insight into the Bond character was welcome and helped to revitalize a movie franchise that could have easily gone away forever. I expected to learn more about Bond as a character in "Quantum" and was disappointed. Instead, much more is revealed about M. This is not necessarily bad, but with the reboot of the Bond franchise I feel that the audience wants to know more about the new, edgy Bond.
Some critics have mentioned that the movie is more Bourne-like than Bond-like. Such comparisons are easily made in the frenetic fight scenes that are filmed in a "Bourne Ultimatum" style. The out-of-control camera movement and quick cuts does add a sense of tension to the fight scenes, but becomes almost annoying as it is overused. Is the Bourne comparison fair? To a new generation of Bond fans the answer is "Probably." Bond risks coming across as a less "hip" and more sinister version of Bourne. Some of this perception would likely be eliminated with the return of the classic Bond phrases "Bond, James Bond" and "Shaken not stirred" that are absent in "Quantum." I am, however, not at all advocating a return to the cheesiness that crept into the later Brosnan Bond films.
As a standalone Bond film, "Quantum of Solace" disappoints, but as a bridge between "Casino Royale" and future installments in the Bond series, the movie is adequate.
Rating: 2.5 stars (out of 4)
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 12)
Top 25
#23 South Carolina at #3 Florida (-23)
Florida 41 South Carolina 14 (Florida covers)
SEC Games
La-Monroe at Ole Miss (-21.5)
Ole Miss 31 La-Monroe 14 (La-Monroe covers)
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-5)
Kentucky 21 Vanderbilt 14 (Kentucky covers)
Troy at #20 LSU (-19)
LSU 42 Troy 14 (LSU covers)
#12 Georgia at Auburn (+8)
Georgia 31 Auburn 14 (Georgia covers)
Mississippi State at #1 Alabama (-20.5)
Alabama 28 Mississippi State 10 (Mississippi State covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at Louisiana Tech (-12.5)
Louisiana Tech 28 Utah State 10 (Louisiana Tech covers)
#14 BYU at Air Force (+4)
BYU 31 Air Force 24 (BYU covers)
#7 Utah at San Diego State (+28)
Utah 45 San Diego State 10 (Utah covers)
#23 South Carolina at #3 Florida (-23)
Florida 41 South Carolina 14 (Florida covers)
SEC Games
La-Monroe at Ole Miss (-21.5)
Ole Miss 31 La-Monroe 14 (La-Monroe covers)
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-5)
Kentucky 21 Vanderbilt 14 (Kentucky covers)
Troy at #20 LSU (-19)
LSU 42 Troy 14 (LSU covers)
#12 Georgia at Auburn (+8)
Georgia 31 Auburn 14 (Georgia covers)
Mississippi State at #1 Alabama (-20.5)
Alabama 28 Mississippi State 10 (Mississippi State covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at Louisiana Tech (-12.5)
Louisiana Tech 28 Utah State 10 (Louisiana Tech covers)
#14 BYU at Air Force (+4)
BYU 31 Air Force 24 (BYU covers)
#7 Utah at San Diego State (+28)
Utah 45 San Diego State 10 (Utah covers)
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Week 11 Prediction Results
Straight-up: 11-3 (0.786)
Against-the-spread: 7-5 (2 games had "No Line") (0.583)
On the year:
Straight-up: 98-26 (0.790)
Against-the-spread: 58-48 (19 games had "No Line") (0.547)
Against-the-spread: 7-5 (2 games had "No Line") (0.583)
On the year:
Straight-up: 98-26 (0.790)
Against-the-spread: 58-48 (19 games had "No Line") (0.547)
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Week 10 Prediction Results
Straight-up: 8-3 (0.727)
Against-the-spread: 5-6 (1 game had "No Line") (0.454)
On the year:
Straight-up: 87-23 (0.798)
Against-the-spread: 51-43 (17 games had "No Line") (0.543)
Against-the-spread: 5-6 (1 game had "No Line") (0.454)
On the year:
Straight-up: 87-23 (0.798)
Against-the-spread: 51-43 (17 games had "No Line") (0.543)
Football Predictions (Week 11)
Top 25
#12 Ohio State at #25 Northwestern (+11)
Ohio State 20 Northwestern 7 (Ohio State covers)
#20 North Carolina at #19 Georgia Tech (-4)
Georgia Tech 24 North Carolina 17 (Georgia Tech covers)
#22 California at #6 USC (-17)
USC 28 California 20 (California covers)
#11 TCU at #9 Utah (+1)
TCU 27 Utah 21 (TCU covers)
#8 Oklahoma State at #3 Texas Tech (-3.5)
Texas Tech 41 Oklahoma State 35 (Texas Tech covers)
#1 Alabama at #15 LSU (+3)
Alabama 27 LSU 17 (Alabama covers)
SEC Games
Arkansas at South Carolina (-10)
South Carolina 24 Arkansas 20 (Arkansas covers)
Wyoming at Tennessee (-25)
Tennessee 34 Wyoming 14 (Wyoming covers)
UT-Martin at Auburn (No line)
Auburn 31 UT-Martin 7
#14 Georgia at Kentucky (+11.5)
Georgia 31 Kentucky 17 (Georgia covers)
#5 Florida at Vanderbilt (+25)
Florida 31 Vanderbilt 10 (Vandy covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at #10 Boise State (-31.5)
Boise State 42 Utah State 7 (Boise State covers)
San Diego State at #16 BYU (-36.5)
BYU 38 San Diego State 3 (San Diego State covers)
Weber State at Idaho State (No line)
Weber State 42 Idaho State 17
#12 Ohio State at #25 Northwestern (+11)
Ohio State 20 Northwestern 7 (Ohio State covers)
#20 North Carolina at #19 Georgia Tech (-4)
Georgia Tech 24 North Carolina 17 (Georgia Tech covers)
#22 California at #6 USC (-17)
USC 28 California 20 (California covers)
#11 TCU at #9 Utah (+1)
TCU 27 Utah 21 (TCU covers)
#8 Oklahoma State at #3 Texas Tech (-3.5)
Texas Tech 41 Oklahoma State 35 (Texas Tech covers)
#1 Alabama at #15 LSU (+3)
Alabama 27 LSU 17 (Alabama covers)
SEC Games
Arkansas at South Carolina (-10)
South Carolina 24 Arkansas 20 (Arkansas covers)
Wyoming at Tennessee (-25)
Tennessee 34 Wyoming 14 (Wyoming covers)
UT-Martin at Auburn (No line)
Auburn 31 UT-Martin 7
#14 Georgia at Kentucky (+11.5)
Georgia 31 Kentucky 17 (Georgia covers)
#5 Florida at Vanderbilt (+25)
Florida 31 Vanderbilt 10 (Vandy covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at #10 Boise State (-31.5)
Boise State 42 Utah State 7 (Boise State covers)
San Diego State at #16 BYU (-36.5)
BYU 38 San Diego State 3 (San Diego State covers)
Weber State at Idaho State (No line)
Weber State 42 Idaho State 17
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Election Projections (Senate)
Seats Currently Held by Democrats
Arkansas - DEM Hold (Pryor)
Delaware - DEM Hold (Biden)
Illinois - DEM Hold (Durbin)
Iowa - DEM Hold (Harkin)
Louisiana - DEM Hold (Landrieu)
Massachusetts - DEM Hold (KerrY)
Michigan - DEM Hold (Levin)
Montana - DEM Hold (Baucus)
New Jersey - DEM Hold (Lautenberg)
Rhode Island - DEM Hold (Reed)
South Dakota - DEM Hold (Johnson)
West Virginia - DEM Hold (Rockefeller)
Gains DEM 0, GOP 0
Seats Currently Held by Republicans
Alabama - GOP Hold (Sessions)
Alaska - DEM Pickup (Begich)
Colorado - DEM Pickup (Udall)
Georgia - GOP Hold (Chambliss)
Idaho - GOP Hold (Risch for Craig)
Kansas - GOP Hold (Roberts)
Kentucky - GOP Hold (McConnell)
Maine - GOP Hold (Collins)
Minnesota - GOP Hold (Coleman)
Mississippi A - GOP Hold (Wicker)
Mississippi B - GOP Hold (Cochran)
Nebraska - GOP Hold (Johanns for Hagel)
New Hampshire - DEM Pickup (Shaheen)
New Mexico - DEM Pickup (Udall)
North Carolina - DEM Pickup (Hagan)
Oklahoma - GOP Hold (Inhofe)
Oregon - DEM Pickup (Merkley)
South Carolina - GOP Hold (Graham)
Tennessee - GOP Hold (Alexander)
Texas - GOP Hold (Cornyn)
Virginia - DEM Pickup (Warner)
Wyoming A - GOP Hold (Enzi)
Wyoming B - GOP Hold (Barrasso)
Gains DEM 7, GOP 0
Balance of Power After Election DEM 59, GOP 41
(DEM Count includes Independents Sanders (VT) and Lieberman (CT))
Arkansas - DEM Hold (Pryor)
Delaware - DEM Hold (Biden)
Illinois - DEM Hold (Durbin)
Iowa - DEM Hold (Harkin)
Louisiana - DEM Hold (Landrieu)
Massachusetts - DEM Hold (KerrY)
Michigan - DEM Hold (Levin)
Montana - DEM Hold (Baucus)
New Jersey - DEM Hold (Lautenberg)
Rhode Island - DEM Hold (Reed)
South Dakota - DEM Hold (Johnson)
West Virginia - DEM Hold (Rockefeller)
Gains DEM 0, GOP 0
Seats Currently Held by Republicans
Alabama - GOP Hold (Sessions)
Alaska - DEM Pickup (Begich)
Colorado - DEM Pickup (Udall)
Georgia - GOP Hold (Chambliss)
Idaho - GOP Hold (Risch for Craig)
Kansas - GOP Hold (Roberts)
Kentucky - GOP Hold (McConnell)
Maine - GOP Hold (Collins)
Minnesota - GOP Hold (Coleman)
Mississippi A - GOP Hold (Wicker)
Mississippi B - GOP Hold (Cochran)
Nebraska - GOP Hold (Johanns for Hagel)
New Hampshire - DEM Pickup (Shaheen)
New Mexico - DEM Pickup (Udall)
North Carolina - DEM Pickup (Hagan)
Oklahoma - GOP Hold (Inhofe)
Oregon - DEM Pickup (Merkley)
South Carolina - GOP Hold (Graham)
Tennessee - GOP Hold (Alexander)
Texas - GOP Hold (Cornyn)
Virginia - DEM Pickup (Warner)
Wyoming A - GOP Hold (Enzi)
Wyoming B - GOP Hold (Barrasso)
Gains DEM 7, GOP 0
Balance of Power After Election DEM 59, GOP 41
(DEM Count includes Independents Sanders (VT) and Lieberman (CT))
Monday, November 3, 2008
Election Projection (Optimistic)
Here's my optimistic election projection for McCain to win. This scenario requires that McCain's recent campaigning in PA pay off. There are certainly other possibilities by which McCain could win (lose PA, win VA, and pick-off either CO or NM).
Election Projection (Realistic)
Here's my projection for the results of tomorrow's Presidential election. I believe that McCain will do better than anticipated, but still fall short. In particular, I believe that the GOP hold on the South will continue with the exception of Virginia. Obama will make gains for the Democrats in the West with NV, NM, and CO.
It is difficult to come up with many plausible combinations of states that allow McCain to win. If conservative turnout is higher than anticipated, the race could still end in McCain's favor. I'll have a separate post to address the configuration of states that I believe McCain COULD win to carry the election. The electoral map used in this projection is from the LA Times.
It is difficult to come up with many plausible combinations of states that allow McCain to win. If conservative turnout is higher than anticipated, the race could still end in McCain's favor. I'll have a separate post to address the configuration of states that I believe McCain COULD win to carry the election. The electoral map used in this projection is from the LA Times.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Football Projections (Week 10)
Top 25
#7 Florida vs. #8 Georgia (+5.5)
Florida 38 Georgia 31 (Florida covers)
#1 Texas at #5 Texas Tech (+6)
Texas 42 Texas Tech 34 (Texas covers)
SEC Games
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-3)
Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 13 (Kentucky covers)
Tennessee at South Carolina (-6.5)
South Carolina 21 Tennessee 10 (South Carolina covers)
Auburn at Ole Miss (-5.5)
Ole Miss 20 Auburn 14 (Ole Miss covers)
#18 Tulsa at Arkansas (+6.5)
Tulsa 34 Arkansas 21 (Tulsa covers)
Tulane at #15 LSU (-25.5)
LSU 31 Tulane 10 (Tulane covers)
Arkansas State at #2 Alabama (-23.5)
Alabama 41 Arkansas State 13 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Hawaii at Utah State (+7.5)
Hawaii 31 Utah State 21 (Hawaii covers)
#9 Utah at New Mexico (+7.5)
Utah 28 New Mexico 20 (Utah covers)
#17 Brigham Young at Colorado State (+14)
BYU 38 Colorado State 10 (BYU covers)
Portland State at Weber State (No line)
Weber State 35 Portland State 20
#7 Florida vs. #8 Georgia (+5.5)
Florida 38 Georgia 31 (Florida covers)
#1 Texas at #5 Texas Tech (+6)
Texas 42 Texas Tech 34 (Texas covers)
SEC Games
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-3)
Kentucky 20 Mississippi State 13 (Kentucky covers)
Tennessee at South Carolina (-6.5)
South Carolina 21 Tennessee 10 (South Carolina covers)
Auburn at Ole Miss (-5.5)
Ole Miss 20 Auburn 14 (Ole Miss covers)
#18 Tulsa at Arkansas (+6.5)
Tulsa 34 Arkansas 21 (Tulsa covers)
Tulane at #15 LSU (-25.5)
LSU 31 Tulane 10 (Tulane covers)
Arkansas State at #2 Alabama (-23.5)
Alabama 41 Arkansas State 13 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Hawaii at Utah State (+7.5)
Hawaii 31 Utah State 21 (Hawaii covers)
#9 Utah at New Mexico (+7.5)
Utah 28 New Mexico 20 (Utah covers)
#17 Brigham Young at Colorado State (+14)
BYU 38 Colorado State 10 (BYU covers)
Portland State at Weber State (No line)
Weber State 35 Portland State 20
Monday, October 27, 2008
FCS Playoff Projections (After Oct. 25th)
My apologies for missing my usual weekly college football predictions. Work has been pretty time consuming lately. Here are my predictions for the FCS Playoffs. Again, note that these projections are based upon how I think the conference races will end-up, rather than how they stand as of now.
Auto-bids
Big Sky - Weber State
Colonial - James Madison
MEAC - South Carolina State
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
Ohio Valley - Tennessee-Martin
Patriot - Lafayette
Southern - Appalachian State
Southland - Texas State
At-large
Wofford (Southern)
Montana (Big Sky)
Cal Poly (Great West)
Villanova (Colonial)
New Hampshire (Colonial)
Richmond (Colonial)
Elon (Southern)
Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley)
Match-ups
South Carolina State at #1 James Madison
Elon at Northern Iowa
Texas State at #4 Weber State
Southern Illinois at New Hampshire
Richmond at #3 Wofford
Cal Poly at Montana
Tennessee-Martin at #2 Appalachian State
Lafayette at Villanova
Auto-bids
Big Sky - Weber State
Colonial - James Madison
MEAC - South Carolina State
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
Ohio Valley - Tennessee-Martin
Patriot - Lafayette
Southern - Appalachian State
Southland - Texas State
At-large
Wofford (Southern)
Montana (Big Sky)
Cal Poly (Great West)
Villanova (Colonial)
New Hampshire (Colonial)
Richmond (Colonial)
Elon (Southern)
Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley)
Match-ups
South Carolina State at #1 James Madison
Elon at Northern Iowa
Texas State at #4 Weber State
Southern Illinois at New Hampshire
Richmond at #3 Wofford
Cal Poly at Montana
Tennessee-Martin at #2 Appalachian State
Lafayette at Villanova
Monday, October 20, 2008
FCS Playoff Projections (After Oct. 18th)
Here's my first stab at projecting the FCS Playoffs for the 2008 season. Note that these projections are based upon how I think the conference races will end-up, rather than how they stand as of now.
Auto-bids
Big Sky - Weber State
Colonial - James Madison
MEAC - Hampton
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
Ohio Valley - Tennessee State
Patriot - Lafayette
Southern - Appalachian State
Southland - McNeese State
At-large
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (Colonial)
Cal Poly (Great West)
Elon (Southern)
Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
Richmond (Colonial)
Wofford (Southern)
New Hampshire (Colonial)
Match-ups
Hampton at #1 James Madison
Northern Arizona at Northern Iowa
Cal Poly at #4 Montana
Elon at Richmond
Lafayette at #3 Villanova
Wofford at Weber State
Tennessee State at #2 Appalachian State
New Hampshire at McNeese State
Auto-bids
Big Sky - Weber State
Colonial - James Madison
MEAC - Hampton
Missouri Valley - Northern Iowa
Ohio Valley - Tennessee State
Patriot - Lafayette
Southern - Appalachian State
Southland - McNeese State
At-large
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (Colonial)
Cal Poly (Great West)
Elon (Southern)
Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
Richmond (Colonial)
Wofford (Southern)
New Hampshire (Colonial)
Match-ups
Hampton at #1 James Madison
Northern Arizona at Northern Iowa
Cal Poly at #4 Montana
Elon at Richmond
Lafayette at #3 Villanova
Wofford at Weber State
Tennessee State at #2 Appalachian State
New Hampshire at McNeese State
Week 8 Prediction Results
Straight-up: 10-2 (0.833)
Against-the-spread: 8-3 (1 game had "No Line") (0.727)
On the year:
Straight-up: 79-20 (0.798)
Against-the-spread: 46-37 (16 games had "No Line") (0.554)
Against-the-spread: 8-3 (1 game had "No Line") (0.727)
On the year:
Straight-up: 79-20 (0.798)
Against-the-spread: 46-37 (16 games had "No Line") (0.554)
Friday, October 17, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 8)
Again, no commentary. Sorry for that :( Also, I completely forgot that BYU played (and then lost) on Thursday night against TCU. I would've picked them to win and probably to cover, so I'll just chalk that one up as a loss straight-up and against the spread.
Top 25
#11 Ohio State at #17 Michigan State (+3)
Ohio State 21 Michigan State 17 (Ohio State covers)
#15 Kansas at #6 Oklahoma (-17.5)
Oklahoma 42 Kansas 28 (Kansas covers)
#12 Missouri at #1 Texas (-7)
Texas 38 Missouri 30 (Texas covers)
#23 Vanderbilt at #9 Georgia (-15)
Georgia 28 Vanderbilt 17 (Vandy covers)
#24 TCU at #8 BYU
Forgot this one, count it as a loss for me :)
SEC Games
Arkansas at Kentucky (-11.5)
Kentucky 28 Arkansas 21 (Arkansas covers)
Mississippi State at Tennessee (-8.5)
Mississippi State 17 Tennessee 14 (Mississippi State covers)
#14 LSU at South Carolina (+3.5)
LSU 38 South Carolina 10 (LSU covers)
Ole Miss at #2 Alabama (-13.5)
Alabama 31 Ole Miss 13 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Colorado State at #13 Utah (-23)
Utah 35 Colorado State 10 (Utah covers)
Utah State at Nevada (-19)
Nevada 38 Utah State 17 (Nevada covers)
Northern Colorado at Weber State (No line)
Weber State 40 Northern Colorado 14
Top 25
#11 Ohio State at #17 Michigan State (+3)
Ohio State 21 Michigan State 17 (Ohio State covers)
#15 Kansas at #6 Oklahoma (-17.5)
Oklahoma 42 Kansas 28 (Kansas covers)
#12 Missouri at #1 Texas (-7)
Texas 38 Missouri 30 (Texas covers)
#23 Vanderbilt at #9 Georgia (-15)
Georgia 28 Vanderbilt 17 (Vandy covers)
#24 TCU at #8 BYU
Forgot this one, count it as a loss for me :)
SEC Games
Arkansas at Kentucky (-11.5)
Kentucky 28 Arkansas 21 (Arkansas covers)
Mississippi State at Tennessee (-8.5)
Mississippi State 17 Tennessee 14 (Mississippi State covers)
#14 LSU at South Carolina (+3.5)
LSU 38 South Carolina 10 (LSU covers)
Ole Miss at #2 Alabama (-13.5)
Alabama 31 Ole Miss 13 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Colorado State at #13 Utah (-23)
Utah 35 Colorado State 10 (Utah covers)
Utah State at Nevada (-19)
Nevada 38 Utah State 17 (Nevada covers)
Northern Colorado at Weber State (No line)
Weber State 40 Northern Colorado 14
Monday, October 13, 2008
Week 7 Prediction Results
Straight-up: 7-6 (0.538)
Against-the-spread: 4-8 (1 game had "No Line") (0.333)
On the year:
Straight-up: 69-18 (0.793)
Against-the-spread: 38-34 (15 games had "No Line") (0.528)
Against-the-spread: 4-8 (1 game had "No Line") (0.333)
On the year:
Straight-up: 69-18 (0.793)
Against-the-spread: 38-34 (15 games had "No Line") (0.528)
Friday, October 10, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 7)
Due to time constraints (thanks to my job), no commentary this week. Here are my predictions:
Top 25
#19 Michigan State at #22 Northwestern (+3)
Michigan State 35 Northwestern 20 (Michigan State covers)
#5 Texas vs. #1 Oklahoma (-6.5)
Oklahoma 31 Texas 20 (Oklahoma covers)
#17 Oklahoma State at #2 Missouri (-13.5)
Missouri 42 Oklahoma State 20 (Missouri covers)
#6 Penn State at #24 Wisconsin (+4.5)
Penn State 24 Wisconsin 17 (Penn State covers)
#3 LSU at #12 Florida (-4)
LSU 28 Florida 24 (LSU covers)
SEC Games
South Carolina at Kentucky (-1)
Kentucky 20 South Carolina 17 (Kentucky covers)
#14 Vanderbilt at Mississippi State (+1)
Vanderbilt 20 Mississippi State 14 (Vandy covers)
Tennessee at #10 Georgia (-13)
Georgia 31 Tennessee 10 (Georgia covers)
Arkansas at #23 Auburn (-19)
Auburn 17 Arkansas 6 (Arkansas covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
#13 Utah at Wyoming (+23)
Utah 31 Wyoming 14 (Wyoming covers)
New Mexico at #8 BYU (-23)
BYU 42 New Mexico 10 (BYU covers)
Utah State at San Jose State (-15.5)
San Jose State 31 Utah State 14 (San Jose State covers)
Weber State at Montana State (No line)
Weber State 28 Montana State 24
Top 25
#19 Michigan State at #22 Northwestern (+3)
Michigan State 35 Northwestern 20 (Michigan State covers)
#5 Texas vs. #1 Oklahoma (-6.5)
Oklahoma 31 Texas 20 (Oklahoma covers)
#17 Oklahoma State at #2 Missouri (-13.5)
Missouri 42 Oklahoma State 20 (Missouri covers)
#6 Penn State at #24 Wisconsin (+4.5)
Penn State 24 Wisconsin 17 (Penn State covers)
#3 LSU at #12 Florida (-4)
LSU 28 Florida 24 (LSU covers)
SEC Games
South Carolina at Kentucky (-1)
Kentucky 20 South Carolina 17 (Kentucky covers)
#14 Vanderbilt at Mississippi State (+1)
Vanderbilt 20 Mississippi State 14 (Vandy covers)
Tennessee at #10 Georgia (-13)
Georgia 31 Tennessee 10 (Georgia covers)
Arkansas at #23 Auburn (-19)
Auburn 17 Arkansas 6 (Arkansas covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
#13 Utah at Wyoming (+23)
Utah 31 Wyoming 14 (Wyoming covers)
New Mexico at #8 BYU (-23)
BYU 42 New Mexico 10 (BYU covers)
Utah State at San Jose State (-15.5)
San Jose State 31 Utah State 14 (San Jose State covers)
Weber State at Montana State (No line)
Weber State 28 Montana State 24
Week 6 Prediction Results
Straight-up: 8-2 (0.800)
Against-the-spread: 4-5 (1 game had "No Line") (0.444)
On the year:
Straight-up: 62-12 (0.838)
Against-the-spread: 34-26 (14 games had "No Line") (0.567)
Against-the-spread: 4-5 (1 game had "No Line") (0.444)
On the year:
Straight-up: 62-12 (0.838)
Against-the-spread: 34-26 (14 games had "No Line") (0.567)
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 6)
I accidently forgot to post this yesterday afternoon.
#20 Oregon at #9 USC (-16.5)
USC looks to rebound from its loss to Oregon State and Oregon looks to redeem its season after losing to Boise State two weeks ago. This could be the de facto Pac-10 championship game...
USC 34 Oregon 13 (USC covers)
#12 Ohio State at #17 Wisconsin (+2.5)
If either of these teams harbors national title hopes, this game serves basically as an elimination game. If Ohio State loses, they will still be in the Big Ten race, but if Wisconsin falls, they may find it difficult to rebound from two conference losses.
Ohio State 24 Wisconsin 20 (Ohio State covers)
#14 Auburn at #19 Vanderbilt (+3.5)
A few weeks ago it would have been difficult to imagine that this game would be between two ranking foes and that Vandy would come into the match-up undefeated. Vandy needs to find two more wins for bowl eligibility, while Auburn needs to find some sort of offensive consistency. A tough pick, but...
Auburn 17 Vanderbilt 10 (Auburn covers)
SEC Games
#13 Florida at Arkansas (+22)
Arkansas' nightmare season continues. Now a "bask" (Yes, I looked up the name for a group of Gators) of angry Gators come to Fayetteville after their shocking loss to Ole Miss. Don't look for a Hogs upset...
Florida 49 Arkansas 14 (Florida covers)
Kentucky at #4 Alabama (-16.5)
Bama slammed Georgia on the road last week to continue their climb up the polls and into the national spotlight. Kentucky has quietly gone undefeated against a weak schedule and came within 1-yard of falling to Middle Tennessee State. The step up in competition should come as a shock to the Wildcats...
Alabama 34 Kentucky 13 (Alabama covers)
South Carolina at Ole Miss (-2)
Ole Miss pulled off a shocker last week by knocking off the Gators on the road. South Carolina has been dismal this season, particularly on offense...
Ole Miss 20 South Carolina 10 (Ole Miss covers)
Northern Illinois at Tennessee (-16)
Tennessee has struggled mightily while limping to a 2-2 record. Northern Illinois is probably better than expected, but faces a tough task in Knoxville. The Huskies have won in the SEC before (see NIU versus Alabama in 2003), so an upset wouldn't be unprecedented.
Tennessee 31 Northern Illinois 10 (Tennessee c0vers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
#7 BYU at Utah State (+28.5)
BYU keeps on winning and has positioned itself to play a role in the BCS saga as the season unfolds. Utah State shocked me by actually winning a game two weeks ago against Idaho. This one probably won't be pretty...
BYU 52 Utah State 10 (BYU covers)
Oregon State at #15 Utah (-10.5)
Oregon State shocked the college football world by knocking off then-#1 USC in front of a national ESPN audience. An undefeated Utah continues to lurk on the outside of the BCS picture, but appears to be weaker than Mountain West rival BYU. Can the Beavers continue their momentum from last week and repeat last year's win over the Utes?
Utah 27 Oregon State 20 (Oregon State covers)
Montana at Weber State (No line)
Weber, after a respectable loss at Utah, comes home to face a challenge from FCS #3 Montana. Weber has played the Grizzlies close the last two seasons, but has been unable to come away with a win. Montana, while highly ranked, seems vulnerable after several close contests this season. Let's the roll the dice and...
Weber State 31 Montana 30
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Week 5 Prediction Results
A bit of a drop-off from my performance last week due to a series of upsets:
Against-the-spread: 4-4 (1 game had "No Line") (0.500)
On the year:
Straight-up: 54-10 (0.844)
Against-the-spread: 30-21 (13 games had "No Line") (0.588)
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 5)
I'm a little pressed for time this week, so no discussion of predictions. So here you go, just the cold, hard predictions:
Top 25
#21 Illinois at #12 Penn State (-13.5)
Penn State 31 Illinois 14 (Penn State covers)
#10 Alabama at #3 Georgia (-6.5)
Georgia 27 Alabama 24 (Alabama covers)
SEC Games
Ole Miss at #4 Florida (-23)
Florida 41 Ole Miss 17 (Florida covers)
Tennessee at #16 Auburn (-6.5)
Auburn 17 Tennessee 3 (Auburn covers)
Arkansas at #7 Texas (-27.5)
Texas 49 Arkansas 10 (Texas covers)
Miss State at #6 LSU (-24)
LSU 45 Miss State 9 (LSU covers)
Western Kentucky at Kentucky (-22)
Kentucky 37 Western Kentucy 27 (Western Kentucky covers)
UAB at South Carolina (-24.5)
South Carolina 24 UAB 10 (UAB covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Weber State at #17 Utah (No line)
Utah 42 Weber State 10
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Week 4 Prediction Results
A strong performance in my predictions for Week 4 of the college football season predictions:
Straight-up: 11-1 (0.917)
Against-the-spread: 8-1 (2 games had "No Line") (0.889)
On the year:
Straight-up: 47-8 (0.855)
Against-the-spread: 26-17 (11 games had "No Line") (0.605)
Straight-up: 11-1 (0.917)
Against-the-spread: 8-1 (2 games had "No Line") (0.889)
On the year:
Straight-up: 47-8 (0.855)
Against-the-spread: 26-17 (11 games had "No Line") (0.605)
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 4)
Week 4 of the college football season is upon us. Predictions are made for games between teams in the Top 25, SEC teams, and Utah teams (Utah, BYU, Utah State, and Weber State). The opening line is used for the spread and can be found here.
Top 25
Top 25
#18 Wake Forest at #25 Florida State (-4.5)
Wake Forest has had FSU's number as of late and FSU is still a mystery team after its pasting of two FCS weaklings. The Demon Deacons' experience against "real" competition will be enough of a difference-maker...
Wake Forest 28 Florida State 20 (Wake Covers)
#6 LSU at #9 Auburn (+2)
This epic showdown will go a long way in determining which team is left standing in the SEC West battle. LSU has dominated its weak opponents and Auburn has looked iffy (at best) in its new offense scheme. Every bone in my body thinks LSU will crush Auburn, but the history of this series is littered with close match-ups...
LSU 13 Auburn 10 (LSU covers)
#3 Georgia at #24 Arizona State (+6.5)
Georgia survived against South Carolina and Arizona State tripped up against a pitiful UNLV squad. All signs point toward Georgia attempting to impress the national TV audience and the pollsters...
Georgia 38 Arizona State 17 (Georgia covers)
SEC Games
Wofford at South Carolina (No line)
South Carolina comes into this game limping from a loss to Vanderbilt and a close-fought contest against Georgia. The Gamecocks defense is decent, but the offense is pretty woeful. Such things probably won't matter against Wofford. Wofford did beat App State last year and is ranked #12 in the latest FCS poll. This one might be close for awhile.
South Carolina 24 Wofford 6
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (-5.5)
Can Vandy continue their unbeaten run? Normally I would be a doubter and figure that the Commodores would blow this one. However, their games against Ole Miss have typically been close and Vandy has won this game in Oxford before. So with a roll of the dice...
Vandy 21 Ole Miss 20 (Vandy covers)
Mississippi State at Georgia Tech (-8)
The Bulldogs come into this game with a disappointing 1-2 record with a 3-2 (Ha! - Directed towards Auburn's "high-powered" spread offense) loss to Auburn and a shocking loss at Louisiana Tech. This kind of game could make or break MSU's season. Georgia Tech is a decent team in a fairly bad conference, but should be able to score. If 3 points was enough for Auburn...
Georgia Tech 17 Miss State 2
#4 Florida at Tennessee (+7.5)
Florida comes into this game with its sights set on dominating an underwhelming Vols squad. Tebow and crew should have no problem squashing Rocky Top...
Florida 31 Tennessee 14 (Florida covers)
#13 Alabama at Arkansas (+9)
Alabama seems to have righted the ship by pounding Western Kentucky after a less than stellar performance against Tulane. Of course, Tulane appears to better than most would have predicted. Arkansas is arguably the worst 2-0 team in the land with come-from-behind wins over Western Illinois and La-Monroe under its belt. I've been saying all along that Petrino was a bad hire for the Hogs and that the Razorbacks are in for a long season. That long season starts Saturday...
Alabama 31 Arkansas 10 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Idaho at Utah State (-4.5)
Possibly two of the worst teams in all of FBS football meet in Logan. This is probably the last time this season that Utah State will be favored and is likely the last chance for the Aggies to actually win a game. Both teams are so bad, it's actually difficult to pick a winner. At least Idaho has shown that it can win a game this season, so...
Idaho 24 Utah State 20 (Idaho covers)
#20 Utah at Air Force (+7)
Utah travels to Colorado to take on the Falcons in a Mountain West Conference match-up. Last year, Utah fell to Air Force in Salt Lake City. This is certainly a step-up in competition for the Utes and Air Force may actually be the best team they have played this season (sorry Michigan). Air Force will grind it out on the ground (as usual) but Utah should prevail...
Utah 27 Air Force 17 (Utah covers)
Wyoming at #11 BYU (-27)
BYU comes off a mauling off UCLA while Wyoming escaped North Dakota State. Will there be a let down after BYU's dominating performance? Doubtful...
BYU 45 Wyoming 10 (BYU covers)
Weber State at Sacramento State (No Line)
Weber opens play in the Big Sky conference with a trip to Sacramento. Both teams come into the game with 2-1 records, each with a loss to an FBS opponent. Sac State finished 3-8 in 2007 with a 3-5 record in the Big Sky. Last year, Weber defeated Sac State 26-7 in a snowy affair. Both teams seem improved, but how much is still uncertain at this point.
Weber State 27 Sacramento State 20
Week 3 Prediction Results
For my Week 3 of the college football season predictions:
Straight-up: 13-1 (0.929)
Against-the-spread: 6-6 (2 games had "No Line") (0.500)
On the year:
Straight-up: 36-7 (0.837)
Against-the-spread: 18-16 (9 games had "No Line") (0.529)
Straight-up: 13-1 (0.929)
Against-the-spread: 6-6 (2 games had "No Line") (0.500)
On the year:
Straight-up: 36-7 (0.837)
Against-the-spread: 18-16 (9 games had "No Line") (0.529)
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Arkansas at Texas
Arkansas' bludgeoning at the hands of Texas has been postponed until September 27th due to the impending arrival of Hurricane Ike. Therefore, this game will not be included in the prediction results for this week.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 3)
We're back for Week 3 of the college football season. Predictions are made for games between teams in the Top 25, SEC teams, and Utah teams (Utah, BYU, Utah State, and Weber State). The opening line is used for the spread and can be found here.
Top 25
#12 Kansas at #18 South Florida (-3.5)
After watching South Florida struggle to beat Central Florida in Overtime last week, this game looks ripe for an "against-the-spread" upset. Kansas has not been tested this year, but should be able to pull off the win.
Kansas 28 Central Florida 20 (Kansas covers)
#11 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State (+1.5)
This game has the makings of a "trap" game for the Badgers and is vital for Fresno State's hopes of breaking into the BCS party. However, Wisconsin's early scare against Marshall should prove to be enough inspiration to leave California with a W.
Wisconsin 31 Fresno State 21 (Wisconsin covers)
#3 Ohio State at #1 USC (-10.5)
THE match-up of the day. Ohio State struggled against lowly Ohio last week, while USC took the week off. I can't help but think that USC is primed to throttle the Buckeyes...
USC 38 Ohio State 14 (USC covers)
#2 Georgia at #24 South Carolina (+7.5)
The Gamecocks shocked Georgia last year in a game that may have ultimately cost the Bulldogs a shot at a national title. Revenge will certainly be on the mind. South Carolina attempts to rebound from a shocking loss to Vanderbilt.
Georgia 31 South Carolina 20 (Georgia covers)
SEC Games
Middle Tennessee State at Kentucky (-16)
So, is MTSU decent, or is Maryland just that bad? I guess we'll know after this one. I got burned by picking against Kentucky in Week 1... I've learned my lesson.
Kentucky 28 MTSU 10 (Kentucky covers)
UAB at Tennessee (-29.5)
After a 2-10 season last year, the Neil Calloway-era in Birmingham keeps sliding downhill as UAB has stumbled to an 0-2 start. Tennessee will be looking to make a statement after the stunning loss to UCLA...
Tennesseee 38 UAB 6 (Tennessee covers)
Rice at Vanderbilt (-7)
Few would've guessed that this game would feature undefeated teams. Can Rice continue their winning ways after their wild win against Memphis? Or will Vanderbilt move to 3-0 and start entertaining thoughts of bowl berths?
Vanderbilt 21 Rice 20 (Rice covers)
Samford at Ole Miss (No line)
The FCS Bulldogs travel to Oxford after a 62-0 thrashing of Faulkner. Ole Miss covers into the game after a heartbreaking loss to Wake Forest. It's hard to imagine this game being close.
Ole Miss 45 Samford 3
Arkansas at #9 Texas (-23.5)
After two weeks of last-minute comebacks against "lesser" (being polite) teams, Petrino's crew heads to Austin. This one will get ugly, quickly...
Texas 49 Arkansas 10 (Texas covers)
North Texas at #6 LSU (-41.5)
One of the worst teams in all the land travels to Baton Rouge to take on the Tigers. Seeing how Appalachian State would probably handle North Texas and seeing LSU dominate App State, this has all the marks of a blow-out of epic proportions...
LSU 52 North Texas 3 (LSU covers)
#10 Auburn at Mississippi State (+10.5)
Miss State is a tough one to figure out. Was the loss to Louisiana Tech a fluke or a sign of dangerous times to come? Auburn seems to have found a QB and shows strength on defense. Suggests a Tigers win...
Auburn 27 Mississippi State 14 (Auburn covers)
Western Kentucky at #17 Alabama (-27.5)
Alabama comes into this game off of a less-than-impressive win over Tulane. Alabama should win, but the question is "Will Bama cover?" A flat performance, reminiscent of last week, will give the Tide a 20-ish point win, while a Clemson-like appearance will see Bama light-up the scoreboard. Let's hope for the latter...
Alabama 45 Western Kentucky 9 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
UCLA at #15 BYU (-9)
UCLA comes to Provo after a shocking win over Tennessee to open the season. This game will truly be a test of whether UCLA is "back" or just caught the Vols napping. BYU escaped in miraculous fashion at Washington. I'm going with the Cougars since I'm not convinced they have returned to prominence just yet...
BYU 27 UCLA 10 (BYU covers)
#23 Utah at Utah State (+23.5)
Utah State's trek through the 2008 season gets no easier as the Utes come to Logan. The Aggies try to rebound from a 66-24 loss at Oregon. I don't see that happening...
Utah 35 Utah State 10 (Utah covers)
Dixie State at Weber State (No line)
Weber comes off a hard-fought loss at Hawaii after leading 17-7 at the half. Dixie State, an NCAA Division II opponent, comes in with a 1-1 record. Weber should dominate this overmatched foe.
Weber State 41 Dixie State 10
Top 25
#12 Kansas at #18 South Florida (-3.5)
After watching South Florida struggle to beat Central Florida in Overtime last week, this game looks ripe for an "against-the-spread" upset. Kansas has not been tested this year, but should be able to pull off the win.
Kansas 28 Central Florida 20 (Kansas covers)
#11 Wisconsin at #21 Fresno State (+1.5)
This game has the makings of a "trap" game for the Badgers and is vital for Fresno State's hopes of breaking into the BCS party. However, Wisconsin's early scare against Marshall should prove to be enough inspiration to leave California with a W.
Wisconsin 31 Fresno State 21 (Wisconsin covers)
#3 Ohio State at #1 USC (-10.5)
THE match-up of the day. Ohio State struggled against lowly Ohio last week, while USC took the week off. I can't help but think that USC is primed to throttle the Buckeyes...
USC 38 Ohio State 14 (USC covers)
#2 Georgia at #24 South Carolina (+7.5)
The Gamecocks shocked Georgia last year in a game that may have ultimately cost the Bulldogs a shot at a national title. Revenge will certainly be on the mind. South Carolina attempts to rebound from a shocking loss to Vanderbilt.
Georgia 31 South Carolina 20 (Georgia covers)
SEC Games
Middle Tennessee State at Kentucky (-16)
So, is MTSU decent, or is Maryland just that bad? I guess we'll know after this one. I got burned by picking against Kentucky in Week 1... I've learned my lesson.
Kentucky 28 MTSU 10 (Kentucky covers)
UAB at Tennessee (-29.5)
After a 2-10 season last year, the Neil Calloway-era in Birmingham keeps sliding downhill as UAB has stumbled to an 0-2 start. Tennessee will be looking to make a statement after the stunning loss to UCLA...
Tennesseee 38 UAB 6 (Tennessee covers)
Rice at Vanderbilt (-7)
Few would've guessed that this game would feature undefeated teams. Can Rice continue their winning ways after their wild win against Memphis? Or will Vanderbilt move to 3-0 and start entertaining thoughts of bowl berths?
Vanderbilt 21 Rice 20 (Rice covers)
Samford at Ole Miss (No line)
The FCS Bulldogs travel to Oxford after a 62-0 thrashing of Faulkner. Ole Miss covers into the game after a heartbreaking loss to Wake Forest. It's hard to imagine this game being close.
Ole Miss 45 Samford 3
Arkansas at #9 Texas (-23.5)
After two weeks of last-minute comebacks against "lesser" (being polite) teams, Petrino's crew heads to Austin. This one will get ugly, quickly...
Texas 49 Arkansas 10 (Texas covers)
North Texas at #6 LSU (-41.5)
One of the worst teams in all the land travels to Baton Rouge to take on the Tigers. Seeing how Appalachian State would probably handle North Texas and seeing LSU dominate App State, this has all the marks of a blow-out of epic proportions...
LSU 52 North Texas 3 (LSU covers)
#10 Auburn at Mississippi State (+10.5)
Miss State is a tough one to figure out. Was the loss to Louisiana Tech a fluke or a sign of dangerous times to come? Auburn seems to have found a QB and shows strength on defense. Suggests a Tigers win...
Auburn 27 Mississippi State 14 (Auburn covers)
Western Kentucky at #17 Alabama (-27.5)
Alabama comes into this game off of a less-than-impressive win over Tulane. Alabama should win, but the question is "Will Bama cover?" A flat performance, reminiscent of last week, will give the Tide a 20-ish point win, while a Clemson-like appearance will see Bama light-up the scoreboard. Let's hope for the latter...
Alabama 45 Western Kentucky 9 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
UCLA at #15 BYU (-9)
UCLA comes to Provo after a shocking win over Tennessee to open the season. This game will truly be a test of whether UCLA is "back" or just caught the Vols napping. BYU escaped in miraculous fashion at Washington. I'm going with the Cougars since I'm not convinced they have returned to prominence just yet...
BYU 27 UCLA 10 (BYU covers)
#23 Utah at Utah State (+23.5)
Utah State's trek through the 2008 season gets no easier as the Utes come to Logan. The Aggies try to rebound from a 66-24 loss at Oregon. I don't see that happening...
Utah 35 Utah State 10 (Utah covers)
Dixie State at Weber State (No line)
Weber comes off a hard-fought loss at Hawaii after leading 17-7 at the half. Dixie State, an NCAA Division II opponent, comes in with a 1-1 record. Weber should dominate this overmatched foe.
Weber State 41 Dixie State 10
Week 2 Prediction Results
For my Week 2 of the college football season predictions:
Straight-up: 10-2 (0.833)
Against-the-spread: 5-5 (2 games had "No Line") (0.500)
On the year:
Straight-up: 23-6 (0.793)
Against-the-spread: 12-10 (7 games had "No Line") (0.545)
Straight-up: 10-2 (0.833)
Against-the-spread: 5-5 (2 games had "No Line") (0.500)
On the year:
Straight-up: 23-6 (0.793)
Against-the-spread: 12-10 (7 games had "No Line") (0.545)
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 2)
Once again, I present my predictions for this week's college football games. Predictions are made for games between teams in the Top 25, SEC teams, and Utah teams (Utah, BYU, Utah State, and Weber State). The opening line is used for the spread and can be found here.
Top 25
There are no games between teams in the USA Today Top 25 this week.
SEC Games
Troy at #6 LSU
Postponed in the wake of Hurricane Gustav.
#24 South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+9)
Both South Carolina and Vanderbilt come off of solid wins in Week 1 and look to take a win here to start their in-conference slate with a bang. South Carolina continues its tradition of changing quarterbacks. Vandy will put up a better fight than NC State and should at least cover.
South Carolina 20 Vanderbilt 14 (Vandy covers)
Southern Miss at #10 Auburn (-17)
Auburn comes into this game with uncertainty at QB after a less than stellar offensive performance in the win over Louisiana-Monroe. Southern Miss laid over 50 points on Louisiana-Lafayette in their season opening win. Can USM pull off the upset? Not against the Auburn defense...
Auburn 21 Southern Miss 3 (Auburn covers)
Central Michigan at #2 Georgia (-23.5)
Georgia inexplicably fell from the #1 stop in the polls after a solid thrashing of Georgia Southern. Did this irritate the Bulldogs and will they relieve their irritation with a spanking of the Chippewas? Central Michigan struggled in their season opener against Eastern Illinois. So...
Georgia 40 Central Michigan 7 (Georgia covers)
Ole Miss at #20 Wake Forest (-8.5)
Both teams come into this game with big wins over inferior opposition. Ole Miss handled Memphis in what has typically been a close affair and Wake Forest laid it on Baylor. As I mentioned last week, I believe Ole Miss is a sleeper in the SEC with Houston Nutt at the helm.
Ole Miss 31 Wake Forest 28 (Ole Miss covers)
Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas (-14.5)
The Hogs escaped Western Illinois in Bobby Petrino's opener at Arkansas while UL-M fell to Auburn. While Arkansas will struggle mightily this season, I suspect they have enough in them to knock off the Warhawks.
Arkansas 34 Louisiana-Monroe 12 (Arkansas covers)
Miami at #5 Florida (-21)
The glory days of Hurricanes football seem like a distance memory. In what (ten years ago) might have been an epic showdown, Miami goes to Gainesville and receives a pounding.
Florida 49 Miami 14 (Florida covers)
Southeastern Louisiana at Mississippi State (No line)
Miss State being shocked by Louisiana Tech does not bode well for Sly Croom's hopes for another winning season in Starkville. SLU shows up at just the right time for the Bulldogs to try to get things back on track...
Mississippi State 28 Southeastern Louisiana 3
Tulane at #17 Alabama (-28)
After Alabama's dominating performance against Clemson last week, it might be tempting to don the Crimson-colored glasses. However, I've been burned far to many times by the Tide to go off and drink the Crimson Kool-Aid just yet. Will there be a letdown for Bama? Are the days of playing down to the competition over? We shall see...
Alabama 41 Tulane 9 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
#15 BYU at Washington (+10)
The Huskies were hammered on the road at Oregon to open the season. Such happenings will probably guarantee the end of the Ty Willingham era at Washington. Expect another nail in his coffin...
BYU 35 Washington 14 (BYU covers)
Utah State at #16 Oregon (-34.5)
Lowly Utah State visits the aforementioned Oregon Ducks. This on the heels of a loss at also lowly UNLV. Not good for the Aggies...
Oregon 49 Utah State 3 (Oregon covers)
UNLV at #23 Utah (-22.5)
UNLV continues their tour of Utah schools with a trip to Salt Lake City. Utah returns home after a their huge win at Michigan. Don't look for a letdown here...
Utah 35 UNLV 10 (Utah covers)
Weber State at Hawaii (No line)
Weber State hasn't beaten an FBS (Division 1-A) opponent since 1993. Hawaii is certainly down on their luck after getting blasted by Florida (and Georgia in the Sugar Bowl). Can Weber shock the Rainbows? Maybe for a half...
Hawaii 38 Weber State 6
Top 25
There are no games between teams in the USA Today Top 25 this week.
SEC Games
Troy at #6 LSU
Postponed in the wake of Hurricane Gustav.
#24 South Carolina at Vanderbilt (+9)
Both South Carolina and Vanderbilt come off of solid wins in Week 1 and look to take a win here to start their in-conference slate with a bang. South Carolina continues its tradition of changing quarterbacks. Vandy will put up a better fight than NC State and should at least cover.
South Carolina 20 Vanderbilt 14 (Vandy covers)
Southern Miss at #10 Auburn (-17)
Auburn comes into this game with uncertainty at QB after a less than stellar offensive performance in the win over Louisiana-Monroe. Southern Miss laid over 50 points on Louisiana-Lafayette in their season opening win. Can USM pull off the upset? Not against the Auburn defense...
Auburn 21 Southern Miss 3 (Auburn covers)
Central Michigan at #2 Georgia (-23.5)
Georgia inexplicably fell from the #1 stop in the polls after a solid thrashing of Georgia Southern. Did this irritate the Bulldogs and will they relieve their irritation with a spanking of the Chippewas? Central Michigan struggled in their season opener against Eastern Illinois. So...
Georgia 40 Central Michigan 7 (Georgia covers)
Ole Miss at #20 Wake Forest (-8.5)
Both teams come into this game with big wins over inferior opposition. Ole Miss handled Memphis in what has typically been a close affair and Wake Forest laid it on Baylor. As I mentioned last week, I believe Ole Miss is a sleeper in the SEC with Houston Nutt at the helm.
Ole Miss 31 Wake Forest 28 (Ole Miss covers)
Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas (-14.5)
The Hogs escaped Western Illinois in Bobby Petrino's opener at Arkansas while UL-M fell to Auburn. While Arkansas will struggle mightily this season, I suspect they have enough in them to knock off the Warhawks.
Arkansas 34 Louisiana-Monroe 12 (Arkansas covers)
Miami at #5 Florida (-21)
The glory days of Hurricanes football seem like a distance memory. In what (ten years ago) might have been an epic showdown, Miami goes to Gainesville and receives a pounding.
Florida 49 Miami 14 (Florida covers)
Southeastern Louisiana at Mississippi State (No line)
Miss State being shocked by Louisiana Tech does not bode well for Sly Croom's hopes for another winning season in Starkville. SLU shows up at just the right time for the Bulldogs to try to get things back on track...
Mississippi State 28 Southeastern Louisiana 3
Tulane at #17 Alabama (-28)
After Alabama's dominating performance against Clemson last week, it might be tempting to don the Crimson-colored glasses. However, I've been burned far to many times by the Tide to go off and drink the Crimson Kool-Aid just yet. Will there be a letdown for Bama? Are the days of playing down to the competition over? We shall see...
Alabama 41 Tulane 9 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
#15 BYU at Washington (+10)
The Huskies were hammered on the road at Oregon to open the season. Such happenings will probably guarantee the end of the Ty Willingham era at Washington. Expect another nail in his coffin...
BYU 35 Washington 14 (BYU covers)
Utah State at #16 Oregon (-34.5)
Lowly Utah State visits the aforementioned Oregon Ducks. This on the heels of a loss at also lowly UNLV. Not good for the Aggies...
Oregon 49 Utah State 3 (Oregon covers)
UNLV at #23 Utah (-22.5)
UNLV continues their tour of Utah schools with a trip to Salt Lake City. Utah returns home after a their huge win at Michigan. Don't look for a letdown here...
Utah 35 UNLV 10 (Utah covers)
Weber State at Hawaii (No line)
Weber State hasn't beaten an FBS (Division 1-A) opponent since 1993. Hawaii is certainly down on their luck after getting blasted by Florida (and Georgia in the Sugar Bowl). Can Weber shock the Rainbows? Maybe for a half...
Hawaii 38 Weber State 6
Week 1 Prediction Results
For my Week 1 of the college football season predictions:
Straight-up: 13-4 (0.765)
Against-the-spread: 7-5 (5 games had "No Line") (0.583)
Straight-up: 13-4 (0.765)
Against-the-spread: 7-5 (5 games had "No Line") (0.583)
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 1)
In what I hope will be a weekly feature on "Find the Beast", I present my picks for a few selected college football games for the current week. I present predictions for all SEC games, games between Top 25 teams, and games involving Utah, BYU, Utah State, and Weber State. The spread for the games is the Opening Line from USA Today and may viewed here. So let's begin. We'll save the picks for the Alabama and Weber State games for last.
Top 25
#19 Illinois vs. #7 Missouri (-9)
Both teams come off of surprisingly strong 2007 seasons. Will the teams continue their winning ways or return back to their previous existence in relative mediocrity? My money would be on Missouri to win given the skill and experience of QB Chase Daniel. Ron Zook has done a fine job at Illinois and probably doesn't miss the glaring spotlight he operated under at Florida.
Missouri 37 Illinois 21 (Missouri covers)
SEC Games
Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) (-3)
Will this be the break-out year for Vandy? A breakout year for Vandy being defined as a winning record and a bowl appearance. I suspect not.
Miami 24 Vanderbilt 17 (Miami covers)
NC State at South Carolina (-11.5)
While Steve Spurrier has turned the Gamecocks into a formidable opponent for his SEC East companions, he hasn't been able to break-through on the national front. 2007 started well, but ended with a visor-tossing string of five consecutive defeats. NC State, meanwhile, toiled to a 5-7 record. Will USC get off on the right-foot with a big win to set-up a year to challenge in the SEC East? Yes on the big win, probably not on the challenging in the SEC East.
South Carolina 31 NC State 13 (South Carolina covers)
Hawaii at #5 Florida (-33.5)
The last time we saw Hawaii, they were being mauled by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Losing their star QB will probably not help make things much better in Gainesville. Look for Tebow & Co. to be resting the starters soon after halftime.
Florida 49 Hawaii 10 (Florida covers)
Georgia Southern at #1 Georgia (No line)
If you're watching this game and expected a Michigan-App State type affair, I suspect your hopes will be dashed early on. Georgia Southern lost their entire Offensive Line to graduation. If you saw the Georgia-Hawaii game, this does not bode well.
Georgia 63 Georgia Southern 3
Appalachian State at LSU (No line)
A battle of defending national champions in Baton Rouge. I'll be cheering on the Mountaineers and hoping they pull off another enormous upset over the hated Tigers. I suspect this one will be close for awhile, perhaps even at halftime. However, LSU is simply too strong and too talented.
LSU 31 Appalachian State 10
UL-Monroe at #11 Auburn (-26.5)
The Bama fan in me would love nothing more than to see the Warhawks give Auburn a game. Even with a new offensive system and uncertainty at QB, I can't see Auburn dropping this one or letting it even be close. That said, I'd gladly take being wrong on this pick...
Auburn 38 UL-Monroe 10 (Auburn covers)
Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech (+9)
Coach Croom has built a respectable program in Starkville which is pretty amazing if you've ever been to Starkville and realized that there is absolutely nothing appealing about the place. Look for an improved Bulldog (MSU Bulldogs that is) squad to make short work of the Bulldogs from Ruston.
Miss State 27 Louisiana Tech 10 (Miss State covers)
Western Illinois at Arkansas (No line)
Bobby Petrino eases into things as the Razorbacks coach with a game against the mighty Western Illinois Leathernecks. While I can't imagine the Petrino regime faring too well in its first season, I'd like to think that this game is probably in the back for the Hogs.
Arkansas 31 Western Illinois 7
Memphis at Ole Miss (-8)
The aforementioned Razorbacks made a lousy decision in the running-off of Houston Nutt. He appears to be a solid coach and should do well with Ed Orgeron's recruits. Ole Miss will surprise this year.
Ole Miss 21 Memphis 10 (Ole Miss covers)
Kentucky at Louisville (-4.5)
This could be a rough year in Lexington. The loss of Andre Woodson does not suggest that Kentucky will be improving upon their 8-5 record from 2007. Louisville looks to return to prominence after a disappointing 6-6 record.
Louisville 24 Kentucky 13 (Louisville covers)
#18 Tennessee at UCLA (+7)
I have some not so fond memories of a season-opening game at UCLA in 2000. The Vols will probably be leaving Southern California with a smile on their faces. UCLA features a new coach and a brutal schedule that could make for a long year.
Tennessee 27 UCLA 17 (Tennessee covers)
Alabama vs #9 Clemson (-5)
Alabama begins Year 2 of the "Process" under Coach Saban. Year 1 featured ups (a thrashing of Tennessee and a close loss to Georgia) and downs (La-Monroe and Tommy Tuberville's 6th finger). 2008 should see Alabama with a better, more disciplined team, but a brutal road schedule and serious depth issues suggests a fair to good season at best. Clemson is once again projected to do well. The question remains: Will the Tigers choke or is the breakthrough year? My brain says Clemson wins a close one. My heart tells me...
Alabama 28 Clemson 27 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at UNLV (-12.5)
Utah State will fight hard to overcome their reputation as one of the worst programs in major college football. Unfortunately for the Aggies, this work won't pay off in Vegas.
UNLV 35 Utah State 17 (UNLV covers)
Northern Iowa at #17 BYU (No line)
Another intriguing FBS-FCS showdown. Northern Iowa is not a team to be taken lightly as they have performed well on the FCS stage and has beaten the Big 12's Iowa State on the road. However, BYU is no Iowa State.
BYU 38 Northern Iowa 13
Utah at #24 Michigan (-3.5)
The Utes open the season at "The Big House". The last time the season kicked-off at Michigan, the Wolverines fell to Appalachian State. Will Michigan's new coach Rich Rodriguez avoid starting his tenure with an L? I'm going out on a limb and taking the Utes.
Utah 24 Michigan 20 (Utah covers)
Montana-Western at Weber State (No line)
The Wildcats open the 2008 season with a Thursday night match-up against the NAIA Bulldogs. With a trip to Hawaii looming, Weber should cruise.
Weber State 41 Montana-Western 10
Top 25
#19 Illinois vs. #7 Missouri (-9)
Both teams come off of surprisingly strong 2007 seasons. Will the teams continue their winning ways or return back to their previous existence in relative mediocrity? My money would be on Missouri to win given the skill and experience of QB Chase Daniel. Ron Zook has done a fine job at Illinois and probably doesn't miss the glaring spotlight he operated under at Florida.
Missouri 37 Illinois 21 (Missouri covers)
SEC Games
Vanderbilt at Miami (OH) (-3)
Will this be the break-out year for Vandy? A breakout year for Vandy being defined as a winning record and a bowl appearance. I suspect not.
Miami 24 Vanderbilt 17 (Miami covers)
NC State at South Carolina (-11.5)
While Steve Spurrier has turned the Gamecocks into a formidable opponent for his SEC East companions, he hasn't been able to break-through on the national front. 2007 started well, but ended with a visor-tossing string of five consecutive defeats. NC State, meanwhile, toiled to a 5-7 record. Will USC get off on the right-foot with a big win to set-up a year to challenge in the SEC East? Yes on the big win, probably not on the challenging in the SEC East.
South Carolina 31 NC State 13 (South Carolina covers)
Hawaii at #5 Florida (-33.5)
The last time we saw Hawaii, they were being mauled by Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Losing their star QB will probably not help make things much better in Gainesville. Look for Tebow & Co. to be resting the starters soon after halftime.
Florida 49 Hawaii 10 (Florida covers)
Georgia Southern at #1 Georgia (No line)
If you're watching this game and expected a Michigan-App State type affair, I suspect your hopes will be dashed early on. Georgia Southern lost their entire Offensive Line to graduation. If you saw the Georgia-Hawaii game, this does not bode well.
Georgia 63 Georgia Southern 3
Appalachian State at LSU (No line)
A battle of defending national champions in Baton Rouge. I'll be cheering on the Mountaineers and hoping they pull off another enormous upset over the hated Tigers. I suspect this one will be close for awhile, perhaps even at halftime. However, LSU is simply too strong and too talented.
LSU 31 Appalachian State 10
UL-Monroe at #11 Auburn (-26.5)
The Bama fan in me would love nothing more than to see the Warhawks give Auburn a game. Even with a new offensive system and uncertainty at QB, I can't see Auburn dropping this one or letting it even be close. That said, I'd gladly take being wrong on this pick...
Auburn 38 UL-Monroe 10 (Auburn covers)
Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech (+9)
Coach Croom has built a respectable program in Starkville which is pretty amazing if you've ever been to Starkville and realized that there is absolutely nothing appealing about the place. Look for an improved Bulldog (MSU Bulldogs that is) squad to make short work of the Bulldogs from Ruston.
Miss State 27 Louisiana Tech 10 (Miss State covers)
Western Illinois at Arkansas (No line)
Bobby Petrino eases into things as the Razorbacks coach with a game against the mighty Western Illinois Leathernecks. While I can't imagine the Petrino regime faring too well in its first season, I'd like to think that this game is probably in the back for the Hogs.
Arkansas 31 Western Illinois 7
Memphis at Ole Miss (-8)
The aforementioned Razorbacks made a lousy decision in the running-off of Houston Nutt. He appears to be a solid coach and should do well with Ed Orgeron's recruits. Ole Miss will surprise this year.
Ole Miss 21 Memphis 10 (Ole Miss covers)
Kentucky at Louisville (-4.5)
This could be a rough year in Lexington. The loss of Andre Woodson does not suggest that Kentucky will be improving upon their 8-5 record from 2007. Louisville looks to return to prominence after a disappointing 6-6 record.
Louisville 24 Kentucky 13 (Louisville covers)
#18 Tennessee at UCLA (+7)
I have some not so fond memories of a season-opening game at UCLA in 2000. The Vols will probably be leaving Southern California with a smile on their faces. UCLA features a new coach and a brutal schedule that could make for a long year.
Tennessee 27 UCLA 17 (Tennessee covers)
Alabama vs #9 Clemson (-5)
Alabama begins Year 2 of the "Process" under Coach Saban. Year 1 featured ups (a thrashing of Tennessee and a close loss to Georgia) and downs (La-Monroe and Tommy Tuberville's 6th finger). 2008 should see Alabama with a better, more disciplined team, but a brutal road schedule and serious depth issues suggests a fair to good season at best. Clemson is once again projected to do well. The question remains: Will the Tigers choke or is the breakthrough year? My brain says Clemson wins a close one. My heart tells me...
Alabama 28 Clemson 27 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at UNLV (-12.5)
Utah State will fight hard to overcome their reputation as one of the worst programs in major college football. Unfortunately for the Aggies, this work won't pay off in Vegas.
UNLV 35 Utah State 17 (UNLV covers)
Northern Iowa at #17 BYU (No line)
Another intriguing FBS-FCS showdown. Northern Iowa is not a team to be taken lightly as they have performed well on the FCS stage and has beaten the Big 12's Iowa State on the road. However, BYU is no Iowa State.
BYU 38 Northern Iowa 13
Utah at #24 Michigan (-3.5)
The Utes open the season at "The Big House". The last time the season kicked-off at Michigan, the Wolverines fell to Appalachian State. Will Michigan's new coach Rich Rodriguez avoid starting his tenure with an L? I'm going out on a limb and taking the Utes.
Utah 24 Michigan 20 (Utah covers)
Montana-Western at Weber State (No line)
The Wildcats open the 2008 season with a Thursday night match-up against the NAIA Bulldogs. With a trip to Hawaii looming, Weber should cruise.
Weber State 41 Montana-Western 10
Monday, July 28, 2008
Cuil =! Cool
Just tried out the new, hyped-up Cuil search engine. Searched for "Alabama"... No results found... Wow, back to Google we go.
My Absence from the Blogosphere
Many apologies for a long delay between postings. I will have a new post shortly describing the "adventure" of moving to Utah and getting settled in.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
A Few Links
Since I've added the badge from electoral-vote.com, I thought perhaps it's time to share a glimpse of a few of my favorite links for political news and insight:
Politics1 - A great site with frequent updates on candidates and polling. Run by a VERY liberal Obama supporter, unfortunately
RealClearPolitics - A classic news and polling site. Provides views from both sides of the aisle.
Politico - Another news and political blog site.
Electoral-Vote - As mentioned previously. A constantly updated very of the electoral college predictions for the November election.
Politics1 - A great site with frequent updates on candidates and polling. Run by a VERY liberal Obama supporter, unfortunately
RealClearPolitics - A classic news and polling site. Provides views from both sides of the aisle.
Politico - Another news and political blog site.
Electoral-Vote - As mentioned previously. A constantly updated very of the electoral college predictions for the November election.
Friday, June 6, 2008
Poking my head out of the shadows...
I'm still here...
Life has been extremely hectic lately as I try to finish up dissertation work and prepare to move to Utah at the end of June.
In the meantime, I have added a widget to the right-hand column of this blog that gives the electoral vote projection for the 2008 Presidential election. The widget is from the great site www.electoral-vote.com. The site has a liberal slant, but is a great resource for polls and analysis on the Presidential race and Congressional contests.
I'm heading back to the depths of dissertation work. In the meantime, check-out and comment on my photos at Flickr.
Life has been extremely hectic lately as I try to finish up dissertation work and prepare to move to Utah at the end of June.
In the meantime, I have added a widget to the right-hand column of this blog that gives the electoral vote projection for the 2008 Presidential election. The widget is from the great site www.electoral-vote.com. The site has a liberal slant, but is a great resource for polls and analysis on the Presidential race and Congressional contests.
I'm heading back to the depths of dissertation work. In the meantime, check-out and comment on my photos at Flickr.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
My First HDR Image
Here's my first attempt at an HDR image. This is the railway bridge connecting Northport and Tuscaloosa. I used the trial version of the Photomatix software.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Out with the Sticky Wall: A Change in Blogging Philosophy
Being an aspiring blogger, it is tempting to simply throw some content on the blog on a daily basis just to see what sticks. However, I've resolved to only post when I truly have something interesting or notable to actually write about. Therefore, you won't see as many posts here as you would have on my previous blogging efforts, but hopefully the quality of the content will be vastly improved. If you are running a blog, how do you feel about the balance between quality and quantity?
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Brother Micah
"Brother" Micah Armstrong made his appearance on the University of Alabama campus again yesterday, occupying the "free speech" zone near the Ferguson Center for a considerable length of time. That's him in the center of the ring of students in the photo below.
For a quick taste of Armstrong and his tactics, check out this YouTube video.
For a quick taste of Armstrong and his tactics, check out this YouTube video.Sunday, March 2, 2008
Missing!
Our city-issued trashcan. It used to sit here:
What kind of person steals a trashcan? Last seen Friday night. Guess I'll be calling the City tomorrow to see if they can bring me another one. I hope they don't charge me :(
UPDATE: They want me to pay $55 for a new can!! Apparently, the City isn't liable for stolen cans! What a crock...
UPDATE 2: I coughed up the $55 this morning. The City will deliver my new can tomorrow. They said the new can is mine and I can do whatever I want to with it. Perhaps I will take it with me when we move.
What kind of person steals a trashcan? Last seen Friday night. Guess I'll be calling the City tomorrow to see if they can bring me another one. I hope they don't charge me :(UPDATE: They want me to pay $55 for a new can!! Apparently, the City isn't liable for stolen cans! What a crock...
UPDATE 2: I coughed up the $55 this morning. The City will deliver my new can tomorrow. They said the new can is mine and I can do whatever I want to with it. Perhaps I will take it with me when we move.
Friday, February 29, 2008
Utah
I'm back at the Atlanta airport after having been in Utah for a few days interviewing for faculty position at Weber State University in Odgen. I didn't have a ton of time to do "tourist"-type things and I didn't even bring my Digital Rebel. I did, however, take a few pics with my Blackberry Curve. I'll post all of them to Flickr tomorrow or Sunday, but here are a few of my favorites.
Mountain Road near Ogden
Mountains Overlooking the Weber State Campus
Interior of the Mormon Tabernacle, Salt Lake City
Christus Statue at Visitor's Center, Temple Square, Salt Lake City
Mountain Road near Ogden
Mountains Overlooking the Weber State Campus
Interior of the Mormon Tabernacle, Salt Lake City
Christus Statue at Visitor's Center, Temple Square, Salt Lake CityWednesday, February 27, 2008
Alfred E. Neuman, Jackass, and Teenagers Today
While sitting in the 45th (i.e. last) row on a flight from Atlanta to Salt Lake City today, I had the distinct "pleasure" of sitting by a 12ish-year old kid and his dad. I took the window seat, the kid sat next to me, and dad manned the aisle. Except for the kid's striking resemblance to Alfred E. Neuman of MAD Magazine fame (see below), there really wasn't anything all that remarkable or interesting about the kid. I figured I was in for a routine flight. I was wrong....
Upon reaching the altitude at which the powers-that-be have deemed sufficient for us to use our "portable electronic devices", the kid (let's just go ahead and call him Alfred from now on) whips out a portable DVD player from his bag. He dons a pair of headphones and dad does the same. Alfred fires up the DVD player and they both plug in their headphones for what will surely be a touching father and son moment of sharing a film together.
So, the movie starts up. It's Jackass 2: The Unrated Edition. Are you kidding me? Is Alfred stupid enough to think that dad will enjoy such a film? What is dad going to do about this? Apparently not much. They both eagerly watch the first 45 minutes of the film. During this time I discover that Alfred laughs like a girl.
Not like your normal, sane, average, run-of-the-mill girl... No Alfred has the kind of laugh that must be something like the sound a squirrel makes if you were to step on it with a pair of combat boots. The music blaring through my headphones from my iPod can only drown out a portion of this hideous sound.
My dad (and most dads that I know) wouldn't put up with this viewing of Jackass 2 and the accompanying high-pitched laugh-from-hell, but this particular dad seemed fine with it all. Dad at least had the decency to nudge Alfred and insist that they fast-forward through the most raunchy parts of the film. I do my best to slink away into my own little world and try to get some work done on the laptop. Unfortunately, about 15 minutes later things take a turn for the worse.
While happily working away and minding my own business, I decide to glance at Alfred, dad, and Jackass. Big mistake. I had to choose a particular scene of the movie that greets me with full-frontal male nudity! I can only imagine the look or horror and disgust on my face upon seeing this sight. I think dad must have seen my reaction because he slammed the DVD player closed. Thanks dad! Thanks for being a parent! Only took you 60 minutes and the image of a penis seared into my mind forever! And we wonder why kids today turn out so freakin' screwed-up.
Upon reaching the altitude at which the powers-that-be have deemed sufficient for us to use our "portable electronic devices", the kid (let's just go ahead and call him Alfred from now on) whips out a portable DVD player from his bag. He dons a pair of headphones and dad does the same. Alfred fires up the DVD player and they both plug in their headphones for what will surely be a touching father and son moment of sharing a film together.
So, the movie starts up. It's Jackass 2: The Unrated Edition. Are you kidding me? Is Alfred stupid enough to think that dad will enjoy such a film? What is dad going to do about this? Apparently not much. They both eagerly watch the first 45 minutes of the film. During this time I discover that Alfred laughs like a girl.
Not like your normal, sane, average, run-of-the-mill girl... No Alfred has the kind of laugh that must be something like the sound a squirrel makes if you were to step on it with a pair of combat boots. The music blaring through my headphones from my iPod can only drown out a portion of this hideous sound.
My dad (and most dads that I know) wouldn't put up with this viewing of Jackass 2 and the accompanying high-pitched laugh-from-hell, but this particular dad seemed fine with it all. Dad at least had the decency to nudge Alfred and insist that they fast-forward through the most raunchy parts of the film. I do my best to slink away into my own little world and try to get some work done on the laptop. Unfortunately, about 15 minutes later things take a turn for the worse.
While happily working away and minding my own business, I decide to glance at Alfred, dad, and Jackass. Big mistake. I had to choose a particular scene of the movie that greets me with full-frontal male nudity! I can only imagine the look or horror and disgust on my face upon seeing this sight. I think dad must have seen my reaction because he slammed the DVD player closed. Thanks dad! Thanks for being a parent! Only took you 60 minutes and the image of a penis seared into my mind forever! And we wonder why kids today turn out so freakin' screwed-up.
An Eccentricity
Before I start, "eccentricity" is a word, I Googled it :)
I've been traveling a lot lately as I've been searching for a job. I'm currently in the Atlanta airport awaiting a flight to Utah on what will be the fourth trip I've taken in 2008. I've noticed something odd... There must be something about air travel, because I find myself compelled to purchase Mentos. I bought a roll of fruit Mentos this morning in the Birmingham airport for the bargain price () of $2.00. By the time I got to Atlanta, the roll looked like this:
After lunch, the sweet tooth got a hold of me and now the roll of Mentos looks like this:
Hmmm... Do I have a problem?
I've been traveling a lot lately as I've been searching for a job. I'm currently in the Atlanta airport awaiting a flight to Utah on what will be the fourth trip I've taken in 2008. I've noticed something odd... There must be something about air travel, because I find myself compelled to purchase Mentos. I bought a roll of fruit Mentos this morning in the Birmingham airport for the bargain price (
After lunch, the sweet tooth got a hold of me and now the roll of Mentos looks like this:
Hmmm... Do I have a problem?
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