College Football Playoffs (First Round, Part 1)

#1 Oklahoma vs. #16 Troy

Troy stunned the Sooners by rolling to 10-0 lead in the 2nd Quarter before Oklahoma bounced back to take a 21-16 lead into the locker room at halftime. OU stretched the lead to 31-16 by the end of the 3rd Quarter and pulled away for a 41-19 win over the Sun Belt Conference champions. Sooner running back DeMarco Murray was named MVP after turning in a 201 yard rushing performance.

#8 Penn State vs. #9 Boise State

Boise State trailed virtually all evening until a field goal as time expired gave the Broncos a stunning 15-14 upset win over Penn State. Both teams struggled on offense with Penn State taking a 7-6 half time lead and a 14-12 lead after three periods. With the upset win, Boise State advances to face #1 Oklahoma in Norman in the Quarterfinal Round.

#5 USC vs. #12 TCU

The USC Trojans shut down TCU, holding the Horned Frogs to 124 yards of total offense. Game MVP Mark Sanchez threw for 209 yards a one touchdown in the win. Kicker David Buehler connected on five field goals for the Trojans, with a long of 49 yards in the 4th Quarter.

#4 Alabama vs. #13 Virginia Tech

The Crimson Tide broke open a 6-6 game in the 2nd Quarter, scoring two touchdowns in 97 seconds to lead 20-6 at the half. Leigh Tiffin added two field goals in the 3rd Quarter to stretch the Alabama lead to 26-6. A Mark Ingram touchdown run after a Hokies field goal closed the scoring and gave Alabama a 33-9 win. Alabama hosts the USC Trojans in the Quarterfinal Round.

College Football Playoff Simulation

Over the past two weeks, college football fans have been witness to a bevy of meaningless bowl games. In December, I outlined a proposal for a 16 team FBS College Football Playoff. To review the proposal, visit this link.

Rather than simply hope that the higher powers of college football will see the light and institute a playoff, let's add a bit of intrigue and simulate the playoffs for the 2008 season. WhatIfSports provides a college football simulation engine at this link. Between tonight and Thursday's BCS National Championship Game, I will simulate each of the 15 games of the hypothetical playoff and report the results on the blog.

To recap the First Round match-ups (games played at higher-seeded team):

1. Oklahoma vs. 16. Troy
8. Penn State vs. 9. Boise State

5. USC vs. 12. TCU
4. Alabama vs. 13. Virginia Tech

6. Utah vs. 11. Cincinnati
3. Texas vs. 14. East Carolina

7. Texas Tech vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Florida vs. 15. Buffalo

The First Round results will follow in a new post.

Week 15 Prediction Results

Straight-up: 3-5 (0.375)
Against-the-spread: 3-5 (0 games had "No Line") (0.375)

On the year:

Straight-up: 121-39 (0.756)
Against-the-spread: 73-69 (19 games had "No Line") (0.514)

FBS (1A) College Football Playoffs Predictions (UPDATED)

Here is the update to my previous post outlining a 16-team FBS (1-A) Playoff. As a reminder, assume that each conference champion receives an automatic bid (11 teams) and 5 teams receive at-large bids. Teams are seeded by their position in the BCS Standings. Higher seeded teams play at home. Teams from the same conference cannot meet in the first round.

Automatic Bids
ACC - Virginia Tech
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Ten - Penn State
Big 12 - Oklahoma
Conference USA - East Carolina
MAC - Buffalo
Mountain West - Utah
Pac 10 - USC
SEC - Florida
Sun Belt - Troy
WAC - Boise State

At-Large
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Texas Tech
4. Ohio State
5. TCU

1. Oklahoma vs. 16. Troy
8. Penn State vs. 9. Boise State

5. USC vs. 12. TCU
4. Alabama vs. 13. Virginia Tech

6. Utah vs. 11. Cincinnati
3. Texas vs. 14. East Carolina

7. Texas Tech vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Florida vs. 15. Buffalo

Football Predictions (Week 15)

Conference Championship Games

Buffalo vs. #13 Ball State (-14.5) (MAC Championship Game)
Ball State 41 Buffalo 14 (Ball State covers)

#20 Boston College vs. Virginia Tech (+1) (ACC Championship Game)
Boston College 24 Virginia Tech 17 (Boston College covers)

#17 Missouri vs. #2 Oklahoma (-16.5) (Big 12 Championship Game)
Oklahoma 42 Missouri 21 (Oklahoma covers)

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida (-10) (SEC Championship Game)
Alabama 27 Florida 24 (Alabama covers)


FCS Playoff Quarterfinals

Villanova at #1 James Madison (-6)
James Madison 31 Villanova 17 (James Madison covers)

Weber State at #4 Montana (-5)
Weber State 35 Montana 31 (Montana covers)

New Hampshire at #3 Northern Iowa (+2)
Northern Iowa 30 New Hampshire 27 (Northern Iowa covers)

Richmond at #2 Appalachian State (Pick 'em)
Applachian State 38 Richmond 20 (Appalachian State covers)

Week 14 Prediction Results

Straight-up: 12-7 (0.632)
Against-the-spread: 9-10 (0 games had "No Line") (0.474)

On the year:

Straight-up: 118-34 (0.766)
Against-the-spread: 70-64 (19 games had "No Line") (0.522)

FBS (1A) College Football Playoffs Predictions

Having just witnessed Texas getting "screwed" and left out of the Big 12 title game by being jumped in the BCS Standings by an Oklahoma team that they beat head-to-head brought an interesting "what-if." What if the FBS (former Division 1A) employed the same type of 16 team playoff enjoyed at the FCS (former Division 1AA) level?

Let's use the same rules as the FCS uses to set-up a 16 team playoff on the FBS level. Each conference champion (there are 11 FBS conferences) receives an automatic bid to the playoff. This allows even the lowly Sun Belt their day on the big stage (much like in the NCAA Basektball tourney). The other 5 teams in the playoff at the 5 best non-champions as rated by the BCS Standings. In determining first round match-ups, schools from the same conference cannot be matched. All games except the title game are played at the homefield of the higher ranked school.

At this point, not all conference champions are determined, but here's a list of the potential playoff participants:

Automatic Bids
ACC - Boston College or Virginia Tech
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Ten - Penn State
Big 12 - Oklahoma or Missouri
Conference USA - East Carolina or Tulsa
MAC - Ball State or Buffalo
Mountain West - Utah
Pac 10 - USC or Oregon State
SEC - Alabama or Florida
Sun Belt - Troy, Arkansas State, or UL-Lafayette
WAC - Boise State

At-Large
1. Alabama/Florida loser
2. Texas
3. Texas Tech
4. Ohio State
5. TCU

Note that if USC loses to UCLA, then USC would take an at-large spot and if Oklahoma loses to Missouri, then Oklahoma would take an at-large berth.

Assuming that Alabama beats Florida, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Tulsa beats East Carolina, Oklahoma beats Missouri, Ball State beats Buffalo, USC beats UCLA, and Troy wins the Sun Belt, here are the first round match-ups:

1. Alabama vs. 16. Troy
8. Penn State vs. 9. Boise State

5. Florida vs. 12. TCU
4. USC vs. 13. Cincinnati

6. Utah vs. 11. Ball State
3. Texas vs. 14. Boston College

7. Texas Tech vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Oklahoma vs. 15. Tulsa

Some very intriguing match-ups in the first round. Both Alabama and Oklahoma draw in-state opponents. Two "BCS busters meet" in Salt Lake City. Texas Tech's high-flying offense takes on Ohio State. Penn State hosts a dangerous Boise State.

Can you imagine the fun and intrigue that would come from such a system? Not to mention the vast amounts of money from the TV deal. Unfortunately, all we can do is imagine, as the college presidents and the NCAA seem years or decades away from seeing the light and implementing such a system.