Having just witnessed Texas getting "screwed" and left out of the Big 12 title game by being jumped in the BCS Standings by an Oklahoma team that they beat head-to-head brought an interesting "what-if." What if the FBS (former Division 1A) employed the same type of 16 team playoff enjoyed at the FCS (former Division 1AA) level?
Let's use the same rules as the FCS uses to set-up a 16 team playoff on the FBS level. Each conference champion (there are 11 FBS conferences) receives an automatic bid to the playoff. This allows even the lowly Sun Belt their day on the big stage (much like in the NCAA Basektball tourney). The other 5 teams in the playoff at the 5 best non-champions as rated by the BCS Standings. In determining first round match-ups, schools from the same conference cannot be matched. All games except the title game are played at the homefield of the higher ranked school.
At this point, not all conference champions are determined, but here's a list of the potential playoff participants:
Automatic Bids
ACC - Boston College or Virginia Tech
Big East - Cincinnati
Big Ten - Penn State
Big 12 - Oklahoma or Missouri
Conference USA - East Carolina or Tulsa
MAC - Ball State or Buffalo
Mountain West - Utah
Pac 10 - USC or Oregon State
SEC - Alabama or Florida
Sun Belt - Troy, Arkansas State, or UL-Lafayette
WAC - Boise State
At-Large
1. Alabama/Florida loser
2. Texas
3. Texas Tech
4. Ohio State
5. TCU
Note that if USC loses to UCLA, then USC would take an at-large spot and if Oklahoma loses to Missouri, then Oklahoma would take an at-large berth.
Assuming that Alabama beats Florida, Boston College beats Virginia Tech, Tulsa beats East Carolina, Oklahoma beats Missouri, Ball State beats Buffalo, USC beats UCLA, and Troy wins the Sun Belt, here are the first round match-ups:
1. Alabama vs. 16. Troy
8. Penn State vs. 9. Boise State
5. Florida vs. 12. TCU
4. USC vs. 13. Cincinnati
6. Utah vs. 11. Ball State
3. Texas vs. 14. Boston College
7. Texas Tech vs. 10. Ohio State
2. Oklahoma vs. 15. Tulsa
Some very intriguing match-ups in the first round. Both Alabama and Oklahoma draw in-state opponents. Two "BCS busters meet" in Salt Lake City. Texas Tech's high-flying offense takes on Ohio State. Penn State hosts a dangerous Boise State.
Can you imagine the fun and intrigue that would come from such a system? Not to mention the vast amounts of money from the TV deal. Unfortunately, all we can do is imagine, as the college presidents and the NCAA seem years or decades away from seeing the light and implementing such a system.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 14)
Top 25
#18 Oregon at #17 Oregon State (-3)
Oregon State 27 Oregon 21 (Oregon State covers)
#2 Oklahoma at #12 Oklahoma State (+7.5)
Oklahoma 38 Oklahoma State 21 (Oklahoma covers)
#3 Florida at #24 Florida State (+15)
Florida 37 Florida State 20 (Florida covers)
SEC Games
Kentucky at Tennessee (-5)
Kentucky 21 Tennessee 14 (Kentucky covers)
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (-3.5)
Wake Forest 27 Vanderbilt 17 (Wake Forest covers)
South Carolina at Clemson (-1)
South Carolina 24 Clemson 14 (South Carolina covers)
LSU at Arkansas (+4.5)
LSU 30 Arkansas 21 (LSU covers)
Mississippi State at Mississippi (-13)
Mississippi 30 Mississippi State 10 (Mississippi covers)
#23 Georgia Tech at #13 Georgia (-9)
Georgia 23 Georgia Tech 16 (Georgia Tech covers)
Auburn at #1 Alabama (-14.5)
Alabama 31 Auburn 10 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
New Mexico State at Utah State (-5)
New Mexico State 35 Utah State 31 (New Mexico State)
Utah and BYU have completed their regular seasons.
Weber State is participating in the FCS Playoffs (see below).
FCS Playoffs
(Lines from Sagarin Predictor Rating System rounded to nearest integer)
Wofford at #1 James Madison (-8)
James Madison 38 Wofford 20 (James Madison covers)
Colgate at Villanova (-16)
Villanova 30 Colgate 13 (Villanova covers)
Texas State at #4 Montana (-18)
Montana 41 Texas State 17 (Montana covers)
Weber State at Cal Poly (-4)
Cal Poly 35 Weber State 34 (Weber State covers)
South Carolina State at #2 Appalachian State (-18)
Appalachian State 45 South Carolina State 10 (Appalachian State covers)
Eastern Kentucky at Richmond (-24)
Richmond 31 Eastern Kentucky 10 (Eastern Kentucky covers)
Maine at #3 Northern Iowa (-2)
Northern Iowa 38 Maine 20 (Northern Iowa covers)
New Hampshire at Southern Illinois (+7)
New Hampshire 27 Southern Illinois 21 (Southern Illinois covers)
#18 Oregon at #17 Oregon State (-3)
Oregon State 27 Oregon 21 (Oregon State covers)
#2 Oklahoma at #12 Oklahoma State (+7.5)
Oklahoma 38 Oklahoma State 21 (Oklahoma covers)
#3 Florida at #24 Florida State (+15)
Florida 37 Florida State 20 (Florida covers)
SEC Games
Kentucky at Tennessee (-5)
Kentucky 21 Tennessee 14 (Kentucky covers)
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (-3.5)
Wake Forest 27 Vanderbilt 17 (Wake Forest covers)
South Carolina at Clemson (-1)
South Carolina 24 Clemson 14 (South Carolina covers)
LSU at Arkansas (+4.5)
LSU 30 Arkansas 21 (LSU covers)
Mississippi State at Mississippi (-13)
Mississippi 30 Mississippi State 10 (Mississippi covers)
#23 Georgia Tech at #13 Georgia (-9)
Georgia 23 Georgia Tech 16 (Georgia Tech covers)
Auburn at #1 Alabama (-14.5)
Alabama 31 Auburn 10 (Alabama covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
New Mexico State at Utah State (-5)
New Mexico State 35 Utah State 31 (New Mexico State)
Utah and BYU have completed their regular seasons.
Weber State is participating in the FCS Playoffs (see below).
FCS Playoffs
(Lines from Sagarin Predictor Rating System rounded to nearest integer)
Wofford at #1 James Madison (-8)
James Madison 38 Wofford 20 (James Madison covers)
Colgate at Villanova (-16)
Villanova 30 Colgate 13 (Villanova covers)
Texas State at #4 Montana (-18)
Montana 41 Texas State 17 (Montana covers)
Weber State at Cal Poly (-4)
Cal Poly 35 Weber State 34 (Weber State covers)
South Carolina State at #2 Appalachian State (-18)
Appalachian State 45 South Carolina State 10 (Appalachian State covers)
Eastern Kentucky at Richmond (-24)
Richmond 31 Eastern Kentucky 10 (Eastern Kentucky covers)
Maine at #3 Northern Iowa (-2)
Northern Iowa 38 Maine 20 (Northern Iowa covers)
New Hampshire at Southern Illinois (+7)
New Hampshire 27 Southern Illinois 21 (Southern Illinois covers)
Week 12 Prediction Results
Due to professional obligations (i.e., travel for work) I was unable to post predictions for Week 13. Here are the results of my predictions from Week 12.
Straight-up: 8-1 (0.889)
Against-the-spread: 3-6 (0 games had "No Line") (0.333)
On the year:
Straight-up: 106-27 (0.797)
Against-the-spread: 61-54 (19 games had "No Line") (0.530)
Straight-up: 8-1 (0.889)
Against-the-spread: 3-6 (0 games had "No Line") (0.333)
On the year:
Straight-up: 106-27 (0.797)
Against-the-spread: 61-54 (19 games had "No Line") (0.530)
Monday, November 17, 2008
FCS Playoff Projections (After Nov. 15th)
Auto-bids
Big Sky - Weber State*
Colonial - James Madison*
MEAC - South Carolina State*
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley - Tennessee-Martin
Patriot - Colgate
Southern - Appalachian State*
Southland - Texas State
* Indicates Auto-Bid Clinched
At-large
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (Colonial)
Northern Iowa (Misouri Valley)
Cal Poly (Great West)
New Hampshire (Colonial)
Wofford (Southern)
Elon (Southern)
Richmond (Colonial)
Match-ups
South Carolina State at #1 James Madison
Wofford at Southern Illinois
Richmond at #4 Montana
Elon at Cal Poly
Texas State at #3 Weber State
New Hampshire at Northern Iowa
Tennessee-Martin at #2 Appalachian State
Colgate at Villanova
Commentary
Many of the online projections I have seen for this year's FCS playoffs have placed Cal Poly at either Weber State or Montana with the rationale being that Cal Poly is "close" to both of these schools. The NCAA does use a 400 mile rule when trying to pit teams together in the bracket, however, Cal Poly is 879 miles from Ogden, UT and 1,367 miles from Missoula, MT. Given these distances and Cal Poly's high ranking, I suspect that Cal Poly will instead get a home game against a team from east of the Mississippi. Weber then matches up with the Southland champion and Montana gets another East Coast team.
Big Sky - Weber State*
Colonial - James Madison*
MEAC - South Carolina State*
Missouri Valley - Southern Illinois
Ohio Valley - Tennessee-Martin
Patriot - Colgate
Southern - Appalachian State*
Southland - Texas State
* Indicates Auto-Bid Clinched
At-large
Montana (Big Sky)
Villanova (Colonial)
Northern Iowa (Misouri Valley)
Cal Poly (Great West)
New Hampshire (Colonial)
Wofford (Southern)
Elon (Southern)
Richmond (Colonial)
Match-ups
South Carolina State at #1 James Madison
Wofford at Southern Illinois
Richmond at #4 Montana
Elon at Cal Poly
Texas State at #3 Weber State
New Hampshire at Northern Iowa
Tennessee-Martin at #2 Appalachian State
Colgate at Villanova
Commentary
Many of the online projections I have seen for this year's FCS playoffs have placed Cal Poly at either Weber State or Montana with the rationale being that Cal Poly is "close" to both of these schools. The NCAA does use a 400 mile rule when trying to pit teams together in the bracket, however, Cal Poly is 879 miles from Ogden, UT and 1,367 miles from Missoula, MT. Given these distances and Cal Poly's high ranking, I suspect that Cal Poly will instead get a home game against a team from east of the Mississippi. Weber then matches up with the Southland champion and Montana gets another East Coast team.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Movie Review - "Quantum of Solace"
Quantum of Solace
As described during Episode #5 of "Big C and the Beast", I grew up (along with Big C) as a fan of the James Bond movies. I have seen each of the 21 movies preceding "Quantum of Solace" multiple times and recently watched "Casino Royale" again to prepare for the release of the 22nd installment in the James Bond series. This blog post provides a brief review of the film. I will be careful to not reveal any plot spoilers for those of you who have not seen the film yet.
My wife and I viewed the film on opening night at the Megaplex Theater in Ogden, UT. The theater was full, making me increasingly grateful for having purchased tickets on Tuesday night and reserving our seats. The opening sequence was exciting, but not as edgy or revealing as the "Casino Royale" open. I was also very disappointed by the movie's theme song. It just did not "feel" right, where the "Casino Royale" theme was incredible.
"Casino Royale" took a much darker turn from the "camp" of many of the early Bond films. For me, this turn and the great insight into the Bond character was welcome and helped to revitalize a movie franchise that could have easily gone away forever. I expected to learn more about Bond as a character in "Quantum" and was disappointed. Instead, much more is revealed about M. This is not necessarily bad, but with the reboot of the Bond franchise I feel that the audience wants to know more about the new, edgy Bond.
Some critics have mentioned that the movie is more Bourne-like than Bond-like. Such comparisons are easily made in the frenetic fight scenes that are filmed in a "Bourne Ultimatum" style. The out-of-control camera movement and quick cuts does add a sense of tension to the fight scenes, but becomes almost annoying as it is overused. Is the Bourne comparison fair? To a new generation of Bond fans the answer is "Probably." Bond risks coming across as a less "hip" and more sinister version of Bourne. Some of this perception would likely be eliminated with the return of the classic Bond phrases "Bond, James Bond" and "Shaken not stirred" that are absent in "Quantum." I am, however, not at all advocating a return to the cheesiness that crept into the later Brosnan Bond films.
As a standalone Bond film, "Quantum of Solace" disappoints, but as a bridge between "Casino Royale" and future installments in the Bond series, the movie is adequate.
Rating: 2.5 stars (out of 4)
As described during Episode #5 of "Big C and the Beast", I grew up (along with Big C) as a fan of the James Bond movies. I have seen each of the 21 movies preceding "Quantum of Solace" multiple times and recently watched "Casino Royale" again to prepare for the release of the 22nd installment in the James Bond series. This blog post provides a brief review of the film. I will be careful to not reveal any plot spoilers for those of you who have not seen the film yet.
My wife and I viewed the film on opening night at the Megaplex Theater in Ogden, UT. The theater was full, making me increasingly grateful for having purchased tickets on Tuesday night and reserving our seats. The opening sequence was exciting, but not as edgy or revealing as the "Casino Royale" open. I was also very disappointed by the movie's theme song. It just did not "feel" right, where the "Casino Royale" theme was incredible.
"Casino Royale" took a much darker turn from the "camp" of many of the early Bond films. For me, this turn and the great insight into the Bond character was welcome and helped to revitalize a movie franchise that could have easily gone away forever. I expected to learn more about Bond as a character in "Quantum" and was disappointed. Instead, much more is revealed about M. This is not necessarily bad, but with the reboot of the Bond franchise I feel that the audience wants to know more about the new, edgy Bond.
Some critics have mentioned that the movie is more Bourne-like than Bond-like. Such comparisons are easily made in the frenetic fight scenes that are filmed in a "Bourne Ultimatum" style. The out-of-control camera movement and quick cuts does add a sense of tension to the fight scenes, but becomes almost annoying as it is overused. Is the Bourne comparison fair? To a new generation of Bond fans the answer is "Probably." Bond risks coming across as a less "hip" and more sinister version of Bourne. Some of this perception would likely be eliminated with the return of the classic Bond phrases "Bond, James Bond" and "Shaken not stirred" that are absent in "Quantum." I am, however, not at all advocating a return to the cheesiness that crept into the later Brosnan Bond films.
As a standalone Bond film, "Quantum of Solace" disappoints, but as a bridge between "Casino Royale" and future installments in the Bond series, the movie is adequate.
Rating: 2.5 stars (out of 4)
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Football Predictions (Week 12)
Top 25
#23 South Carolina at #3 Florida (-23)
Florida 41 South Carolina 14 (Florida covers)
SEC Games
La-Monroe at Ole Miss (-21.5)
Ole Miss 31 La-Monroe 14 (La-Monroe covers)
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-5)
Kentucky 21 Vanderbilt 14 (Kentucky covers)
Troy at #20 LSU (-19)
LSU 42 Troy 14 (LSU covers)
#12 Georgia at Auburn (+8)
Georgia 31 Auburn 14 (Georgia covers)
Mississippi State at #1 Alabama (-20.5)
Alabama 28 Mississippi State 10 (Mississippi State covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at Louisiana Tech (-12.5)
Louisiana Tech 28 Utah State 10 (Louisiana Tech covers)
#14 BYU at Air Force (+4)
BYU 31 Air Force 24 (BYU covers)
#7 Utah at San Diego State (+28)
Utah 45 San Diego State 10 (Utah covers)
#23 South Carolina at #3 Florida (-23)
Florida 41 South Carolina 14 (Florida covers)
SEC Games
La-Monroe at Ole Miss (-21.5)
Ole Miss 31 La-Monroe 14 (La-Monroe covers)
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-5)
Kentucky 21 Vanderbilt 14 (Kentucky covers)
Troy at #20 LSU (-19)
LSU 42 Troy 14 (LSU covers)
#12 Georgia at Auburn (+8)
Georgia 31 Auburn 14 (Georgia covers)
Mississippi State at #1 Alabama (-20.5)
Alabama 28 Mississippi State 10 (Mississippi State covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at Louisiana Tech (-12.5)
Louisiana Tech 28 Utah State 10 (Louisiana Tech covers)
#14 BYU at Air Force (+4)
BYU 31 Air Force 24 (BYU covers)
#7 Utah at San Diego State (+28)
Utah 45 San Diego State 10 (Utah covers)
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Week 11 Prediction Results
Straight-up: 11-3 (0.786)
Against-the-spread: 7-5 (2 games had "No Line") (0.583)
On the year:
Straight-up: 98-26 (0.790)
Against-the-spread: 58-48 (19 games had "No Line") (0.547)
Against-the-spread: 7-5 (2 games had "No Line") (0.583)
On the year:
Straight-up: 98-26 (0.790)
Against-the-spread: 58-48 (19 games had "No Line") (0.547)
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Week 10 Prediction Results
Straight-up: 8-3 (0.727)
Against-the-spread: 5-6 (1 game had "No Line") (0.454)
On the year:
Straight-up: 87-23 (0.798)
Against-the-spread: 51-43 (17 games had "No Line") (0.543)
Against-the-spread: 5-6 (1 game had "No Line") (0.454)
On the year:
Straight-up: 87-23 (0.798)
Against-the-spread: 51-43 (17 games had "No Line") (0.543)
Football Predictions (Week 11)
Top 25
#12 Ohio State at #25 Northwestern (+11)
Ohio State 20 Northwestern 7 (Ohio State covers)
#20 North Carolina at #19 Georgia Tech (-4)
Georgia Tech 24 North Carolina 17 (Georgia Tech covers)
#22 California at #6 USC (-17)
USC 28 California 20 (California covers)
#11 TCU at #9 Utah (+1)
TCU 27 Utah 21 (TCU covers)
#8 Oklahoma State at #3 Texas Tech (-3.5)
Texas Tech 41 Oklahoma State 35 (Texas Tech covers)
#1 Alabama at #15 LSU (+3)
Alabama 27 LSU 17 (Alabama covers)
SEC Games
Arkansas at South Carolina (-10)
South Carolina 24 Arkansas 20 (Arkansas covers)
Wyoming at Tennessee (-25)
Tennessee 34 Wyoming 14 (Wyoming covers)
UT-Martin at Auburn (No line)
Auburn 31 UT-Martin 7
#14 Georgia at Kentucky (+11.5)
Georgia 31 Kentucky 17 (Georgia covers)
#5 Florida at Vanderbilt (+25)
Florida 31 Vanderbilt 10 (Vandy covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at #10 Boise State (-31.5)
Boise State 42 Utah State 7 (Boise State covers)
San Diego State at #16 BYU (-36.5)
BYU 38 San Diego State 3 (San Diego State covers)
Weber State at Idaho State (No line)
Weber State 42 Idaho State 17
#12 Ohio State at #25 Northwestern (+11)
Ohio State 20 Northwestern 7 (Ohio State covers)
#20 North Carolina at #19 Georgia Tech (-4)
Georgia Tech 24 North Carolina 17 (Georgia Tech covers)
#22 California at #6 USC (-17)
USC 28 California 20 (California covers)
#11 TCU at #9 Utah (+1)
TCU 27 Utah 21 (TCU covers)
#8 Oklahoma State at #3 Texas Tech (-3.5)
Texas Tech 41 Oklahoma State 35 (Texas Tech covers)
#1 Alabama at #15 LSU (+3)
Alabama 27 LSU 17 (Alabama covers)
SEC Games
Arkansas at South Carolina (-10)
South Carolina 24 Arkansas 20 (Arkansas covers)
Wyoming at Tennessee (-25)
Tennessee 34 Wyoming 14 (Wyoming covers)
UT-Martin at Auburn (No line)
Auburn 31 UT-Martin 7
#14 Georgia at Kentucky (+11.5)
Georgia 31 Kentucky 17 (Georgia covers)
#5 Florida at Vanderbilt (+25)
Florida 31 Vanderbilt 10 (Vandy covers)
Games Involving Utah Schools
Utah State at #10 Boise State (-31.5)
Boise State 42 Utah State 7 (Boise State covers)
San Diego State at #16 BYU (-36.5)
BYU 38 San Diego State 3 (San Diego State covers)
Weber State at Idaho State (No line)
Weber State 42 Idaho State 17
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Election Projections (Senate)
Seats Currently Held by Democrats
Arkansas - DEM Hold (Pryor)
Delaware - DEM Hold (Biden)
Illinois - DEM Hold (Durbin)
Iowa - DEM Hold (Harkin)
Louisiana - DEM Hold (Landrieu)
Massachusetts - DEM Hold (KerrY)
Michigan - DEM Hold (Levin)
Montana - DEM Hold (Baucus)
New Jersey - DEM Hold (Lautenberg)
Rhode Island - DEM Hold (Reed)
South Dakota - DEM Hold (Johnson)
West Virginia - DEM Hold (Rockefeller)
Gains DEM 0, GOP 0
Seats Currently Held by Republicans
Alabama - GOP Hold (Sessions)
Alaska - DEM Pickup (Begich)
Colorado - DEM Pickup (Udall)
Georgia - GOP Hold (Chambliss)
Idaho - GOP Hold (Risch for Craig)
Kansas - GOP Hold (Roberts)
Kentucky - GOP Hold (McConnell)
Maine - GOP Hold (Collins)
Minnesota - GOP Hold (Coleman)
Mississippi A - GOP Hold (Wicker)
Mississippi B - GOP Hold (Cochran)
Nebraska - GOP Hold (Johanns for Hagel)
New Hampshire - DEM Pickup (Shaheen)
New Mexico - DEM Pickup (Udall)
North Carolina - DEM Pickup (Hagan)
Oklahoma - GOP Hold (Inhofe)
Oregon - DEM Pickup (Merkley)
South Carolina - GOP Hold (Graham)
Tennessee - GOP Hold (Alexander)
Texas - GOP Hold (Cornyn)
Virginia - DEM Pickup (Warner)
Wyoming A - GOP Hold (Enzi)
Wyoming B - GOP Hold (Barrasso)
Gains DEM 7, GOP 0
Balance of Power After Election DEM 59, GOP 41
(DEM Count includes Independents Sanders (VT) and Lieberman (CT))
Arkansas - DEM Hold (Pryor)
Delaware - DEM Hold (Biden)
Illinois - DEM Hold (Durbin)
Iowa - DEM Hold (Harkin)
Louisiana - DEM Hold (Landrieu)
Massachusetts - DEM Hold (KerrY)
Michigan - DEM Hold (Levin)
Montana - DEM Hold (Baucus)
New Jersey - DEM Hold (Lautenberg)
Rhode Island - DEM Hold (Reed)
South Dakota - DEM Hold (Johnson)
West Virginia - DEM Hold (Rockefeller)
Gains DEM 0, GOP 0
Seats Currently Held by Republicans
Alabama - GOP Hold (Sessions)
Alaska - DEM Pickup (Begich)
Colorado - DEM Pickup (Udall)
Georgia - GOP Hold (Chambliss)
Idaho - GOP Hold (Risch for Craig)
Kansas - GOP Hold (Roberts)
Kentucky - GOP Hold (McConnell)
Maine - GOP Hold (Collins)
Minnesota - GOP Hold (Coleman)
Mississippi A - GOP Hold (Wicker)
Mississippi B - GOP Hold (Cochran)
Nebraska - GOP Hold (Johanns for Hagel)
New Hampshire - DEM Pickup (Shaheen)
New Mexico - DEM Pickup (Udall)
North Carolina - DEM Pickup (Hagan)
Oklahoma - GOP Hold (Inhofe)
Oregon - DEM Pickup (Merkley)
South Carolina - GOP Hold (Graham)
Tennessee - GOP Hold (Alexander)
Texas - GOP Hold (Cornyn)
Virginia - DEM Pickup (Warner)
Wyoming A - GOP Hold (Enzi)
Wyoming B - GOP Hold (Barrasso)
Gains DEM 7, GOP 0
Balance of Power After Election DEM 59, GOP 41
(DEM Count includes Independents Sanders (VT) and Lieberman (CT))
Monday, November 3, 2008
Election Projection (Optimistic)
Here's my optimistic election projection for McCain to win. This scenario requires that McCain's recent campaigning in PA pay off. There are certainly other possibilities by which McCain could win (lose PA, win VA, and pick-off either CO or NM).
Election Projection (Realistic)
Here's my projection for the results of tomorrow's Presidential election. I believe that McCain will do better than anticipated, but still fall short. In particular, I believe that the GOP hold on the South will continue with the exception of Virginia. Obama will make gains for the Democrats in the West with NV, NM, and CO.
It is difficult to come up with many plausible combinations of states that allow McCain to win. If conservative turnout is higher than anticipated, the race could still end in McCain's favor. I'll have a separate post to address the configuration of states that I believe McCain COULD win to carry the election. The electoral map used in this projection is from the LA Times.
It is difficult to come up with many plausible combinations of states that allow McCain to win. If conservative turnout is higher than anticipated, the race could still end in McCain's favor. I'll have a separate post to address the configuration of states that I believe McCain COULD win to carry the election. The electoral map used in this projection is from the LA Times.
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